Related papers: Cram\'er-type Moderate Deviation Theorems for Nonn…
Generalized gamma distributions arise as limits in many settings involving random graphs, walks, trees, and branching processes. Pek\"oz, R\"ollin, and Ross (2016, arXiv:1309.4183 [math.PR]) exploited characterizing distributional fixed…
Approximate Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) offers the promise of more rapid sampling at the cost of more biased inference. Since standard MCMC diagnostics fail to detect these biases, researchers have developed computable Stein discrepancy…
We study the approximation of a (finite) continuous-time Markov chain by a Markov chain on a reduced state space, and we provide formal error bounds for the approximated transient distributions in the Wasserstein distance. These bounds…
A usual assumption in quantum estimation is that the unknown parameter labels the possible states of the system, while it influences neither the sample space of outcomes nor the measurement aimed at extracting information on the parameter…
The term noncentral moderate deviations is used in the literature to mean a class of large deviation principles that, in some sense, fills the gap between the convergence in probability to a constant (governed by a reference large deviation…
The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…
We suggest approximating the distribution of the sum of independent and identically distributed random variables with a Pareto-like tail by combining extreme value approximations for the largest summands with a normal approximation for the…
Moderate calibration, the expected event probability among observations with predicted probability z being equal to z, is a desired property of risk prediction models. Current graphical and numerical techniques for evaluating moderate…
In a recent paper, Gaunt 2020 extended Stein's method to limit distributions that can be represented as a function $g:\mathbb{R}^d\rightarrow\mathbb{R}$ of a centered multivariate normal random vector $\Sigma^{1/2}\mathbf{Z}$ with…
Quantum estimation theory provides optimal observations for various estimation problems for unknown parameters in the state of the system under investigation. However, the theory has been developed under the assumption that every observable…
This paper proposes a valid bootstrap-based distributional approximation for M-estimators exhibiting a Chernoff (1964)-type limiting distribution. For estimators of this kind, the standard nonparametric bootstrap is inconsistent. The method…
Using terminologies of information geometry, we derive upper and lower bounds of the tail probability of the sample mean. Employing these bounds, we obtain upper and lower bounds of the minimum error probability of the 2nd kind of error…
In this paper we introduce a new parametric distribution, the Mixed Tempered Stable. It has the same structure of the Normal Variance Mean Mixtures but the normality assumption leaves place to a semi-heavy tailed distribution. We show that,…
This paper introduces a new distribution to improve tail risk modeling. Based on the classical normal distribution, we define a new distribution by a series of heat equations. Then, we use market data to verify our model.
In this paper we derive the moderate deviation principle for stationary sequences of bounded random variables under martingale-type conditions. Applications to functions of $\phi$-mixing sequences, contracting Markov chains, expanding maps…
We study the distribution of the magnetization of the critical mean-field O(N) model with N > 1. Specifically, we bound the Wasserstein distance between the finite-volume and limiting distributions, in terms of the number of spins. To…
Rare event simulation and rare event probability estimation are important tasks within the analysis of systems subject to uncertainty and randomness. Simultaneously, accurately estimating rare event probabilities is an inherently difficult…
We modify the Glauber dynamics of the Curie-Weiss model with dissipation in Dai Pra, Fischer, Regoli[2013] by considering arbitrary transition rates and we analyze the phase-portrait as well as the dynamics of moderate fluctuations for…
In extreme value inference it is a fundamental problem how the target value is required to be extreme by the extreme value theory. In iid settings this study both theoretically and numerically compares tail estimators, which are based on…
From the distributional characterizations that lie at the heart of Stein's method we derive explicit formulae for the mass functions of discrete probability laws that identify those distributions. These identities are applied to develop…