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The bitcoin price has surged in recent years and it has also exhibited phases of rapid decay. In this paper we address the question to what extent this novel cryptocurrency market can be viewed as a classic or semi-efficient market. Novel…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-06-26 Josselin Garnier , Knut Solna

The cryptocurrency market is amongst the fastest-growing of all the financial markets in the world. Unlike traditional markets, such as equities, foreign exchange and commodities, cryptocurrency market is considered to have larger…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-06 Fan Fang , Waichung Chung , Carmine Ventre , Michail Basios , Leslie Kanthan , Lingbo Li , Fan Wu

In the dynamic landscape of the Web, we are witnessing the emergence of the Web3 paradigm, which dictates that platforms should rely on blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies to sustain themselves and their profitability.…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-03-20 Cheick Tidiane Ba , Richard G. Clegg , Ben A. Steer , Matteo Zignani

The nature of available economic data has changed fundamentally in the last decade due to the economy's digitisation. With the prevalence of often black box data-driven machine learning methods, there is a necessity to develop interpretable…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-28 Pratha Khandelwal , Philip Nadler , Rossella Arcucci , William Knottenbelt , Yi-Ke Guo

Bitcoin is one of the cryptocurrencies that is gaining more popularity in recent years. Previous studies have shown that closing price alone is not enough to forecast stock market series. We introduce a new set of time series and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-28 Stefano Sossi-Rojas , Gissel Velarde , Damian Zieba

Abrupt changes in the miner hash rate applied to a proof-of-work (PoW) blockchain can adversely affect user experience and security. Because different PoW blockchains often share hashing algorithms, miners face a complex choice in deciding…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2018-06-20 George Bissias , Brian N. Levine , David Thibodeau

A technique for on-line estimation of spot volatility for high-frequency data is developed. The algorithm works directly on the transaction data and updates the volatility estimate immediately after the occurrence of a new transaction.…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-15 Rainer Dahlhaus , Jan C. Neddermeyer

Bitcoin is the first and highest valued cryptocurrency that stores transactions in a publicly distributed ledger called the blockchain. Understanding the activity and behavior of Bitcoin actors is a crucial research topic as they are…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-07-18 Natkamon Tovanich , Rémy Cazabet

In this study, we investigate the BTC price time-series (17 August 2010-27 June 2021) and show that the 2017 pricing episode is not unique. We describe at least ten new events, which occurred since 2010-2011 and span more than five orders…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-21 Jevgeni Tarassov , Nicolas Houlié

Blockchain finance has become a part of the world financial system, most typically manifested in the attention to the price of Bitcoin. However, a great deal of work is still limited to using technical indicators to capture Bitcoin price…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-05-03 Panpan Li , Shengbo Gong , Shaocong Xu , Jiajun Zhou , Yu Shanqing , Qi Xuan

Bitcoins have recently become an increasingly popular cryptocurrency through which users trade electronically and more anonymously than via traditional electronic transfers. Bitcoin's design keeps all transactions in a public ledger. The…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2015-02-06 Michael Fleder , Michael S. Kester , Sudeep Pillai

Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, are one of the most controversial and complex technological innovations in today's financial system. This study aims to forecast the movements of Bitcoin prices at a high degree of accuracy. To this aim,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-03-09 Hakan Pabuccu , Serdar Ongan , Ayse Ongan

While attention is a predictor for digital asset prices, and jumps in Bitcoin prices are well-known, we know little about its alternatives. Studying high frequency crypto data gives us the unique possibility to confirm that cross market…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-10-19 Danial Saef , Odett Nagy , Sergej Sizov , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

Prediction of stock prices has been a crucial and challenging task, especially in the case of highly volatile digital currencies such as Bitcoin. This research examineS the potential of using neural network models, namely LSTMs and GRUs, to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-15 Ali Mohammadjafari

In Internet of Things (IoT) networks, the amount of data sensed by user devices may be huge, resulting in the serious network congestion. To solve this problem, intelligent data compression is critical. The variational information…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-12 Qiong Wu , Le Kuai , Pingyi Fan , Qiang Fan , Junhui Zhao , Jiangzhou Wang

This study explores Bitcoin's value formation through the Granular Interaction Thinking Theory-Value Theory (GITT-VT). Rather than stemming from material utility or cash flows, Bitcoin's value arises from informational attributes and…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Quan-Hoang Vuong , Viet-Phuong La , Minh-Hoang Nguyen

Bitcoin is by far the most popular crypto-currency solution enabling peer-to-peer payments. Despite some studies highlighting the network does not provide full anonymity, it is still being heavily used for a wide variety of dubious…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-12-30 Yining Hu , Suranga Seneviratne , Kanchana Thilakarathna , Kensuke Fukuda , Aruna Seneviratne

Cryptocurrency has been subject to illicit activities probably more often than traditional financial assets due to the pseudo-anonymous nature of its transacting entities. An ideal detection model is expected to achieve all three critical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-28 Ling Cheng , Feida Zhu , Yong Wang , Ruicheng Liang , Huiwen Liu

We develop a model of stable assets, including non-custodial stablecoins backed by cryptocurrencies. Such stablecoins are popular methods for bootstrapping price stability within public blockchain settings. We derive fundamental results…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-03-31 Ariah Klages-Mundt , Andreea Minca

This study, to the best of our knowledge for the first time, delves into the spatiotemporal dynamics of Bitcoin transactions, shedding light on the scaling laws governing its geographic usage. Leveraging a dataset of IP addresses and…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-09-22 Lajos Kelemen , István András Seres , Ágnes Backhausz