Related papers: Improving Subseasonal Forecasting in the Western U…

Subseasonal forecasting of the weather two to six weeks in advance is critical for resource allocation and advance disaster notice but poses many challenges for the forecasting community. At this forecast horizon, physics-based dynamical…

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) focuses on predicting key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation in the 2-week to 2-month time scales. Skillful SSF would have immense societal value, in areas such as agricultural…

Subseasonal forecasting -- predicting temperature and precipitation 2 to 6 weeks ahead -- is critical for effective water allocation, wildfire management, and drought and flood mitigation. Recent international research efforts have advanced…

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) is the prediction of key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation on the 2-week to 2-month time horizon. Skillful SSF would have substantial societal value in areas such as agricultural…

Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. This study explores an application of machine learning (ML) models…

Skillful streamflow forecasts can inform decisions in various areas of water policy and management. We integrate numerical weather prediction ensembles, distributed hydrological model and machine learning to generate ensemble streamflow…

Accurate weather prediction is essential for many aspects of life, notably the early warning of extreme weather events such as rainstorms. Short-term predictions of these events rely on forecasts from numerical weather models, in which,…

Traditionally, weather predictions are performed with the help of large complex models of physics, which utilize different atmospheric conditions over a long period of time. These conditions are often unstable because of perturbations of…

It is largely agreed that subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability arises from the atmospheric initial state during early lead times and from the land and ocean during intermediate and late lead times. We test this hypothesis for the…

Precipitation governs Earth's hydroclimate, and its daily spatiotemporal fluctuations have major socioeconomic effects. Advances in Numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been measured by the improvement of forecasts for various physical…

Seamless forecasting that produces warning information at continuum timescales based on only one system is a long-standing pursuit for weather-climate service. While the rapid advancement of deep learning has induced revolutionary changes…

Post-processing typically takes the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and applies linear statistical techniques to produce improve localized forecasts, by including additional observations, or determining systematic…

Seasonal forecasting remains challenging due to the inherent chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics. This paper introduces DeepSeasons, a novel deep learning approach designed to enhance the accuracy and reliability of seasonal forecasts.…

Data-driven machine learning models for weather forecasting have made transformational progress in the last 1-2 years, with state-of-the-art ones now outperforming the best physics-based models for a wide range of skill scores. Given the…

Weather and climate forecasting is vital for sectors such as agriculture and disaster management. Although numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems have advanced, forecasting at the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) scale, spanning 2 to 6…

Precipitation nowcasting, which predicts rainfall up to a few hours ahead, is a critical tool for vulnerable communities in the Global South frequently exposed to intense, rapidly developing storms. Timely forecasts provide a crucial window…

Heat waves are projected to increase in frequency and severity with global warming. Improved warning systems would help reduce the associated loss of lives, wildfires, power disruptions, and reduction in crop yields. In this work, we…

Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy out to two weeks thanks to steady advances in…

Forecasting the weather is an increasingly data intensive exercise. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are becoming more complex, with higher resolutions, and there are increasing numbers of different models in operation. While the…

Advancements in numerical weather prediction models have accelerated, fostering a more comprehensive understanding of physical phenomena pertaining to the dynamics of weather and related computing resources. Despite these advancements,…