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Computing the probability of evidence even with known error bounds is NP-hard. In this paper we address this hard problem by settling on an easier problem. We propose an approximation which provides high confidence lower bounds on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-26 Vibhav Gogate , Bozhena Bidyuk , Rina Dechter

We study algorithms to analyze a particular class of Markov population processes that is often used in epidemiology. More specifically, Markov binomial chains are the model that arises from stochastic time-discretizations of classical…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Alejandro Alarcón Gonzalez , Niel Hens , Tim Leys , Guillermo A. Pérez

We describe an exact approach for calculating transition probabilities and waiting times in finite-state discrete-time Markov processes. All the states and the rules for transitions between them must be known in advance. We can then…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-11 Semen A. Trygubenko , David J. Wales

The measurement called accessibility has been proposed as a means to quantify the efficiency of the communication between nodes in complex networks. This article reports important results regarding the properties of the accessibility,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-05-30 Matheus P. Viana , João L. B. Batista , Luciano da F. Costa

We consider partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with limit-average payoff, where a reward value in the interval [0,1] is associated to every transition, and the payoff of an infinite path is the long-run average of the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-08-23 Krishnendu Chatterjee , Martin Chmelík

We study the almost-sure reachability problem in a distributed system obtained as the asynchronous composition of N copies (called processes) of the same automaton (called protocol), that can communicate via a shared register with finite…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2016-05-06 Patricia Bouyer , Nicolas Markey , Mickael Randour , Arnaud Sangnier , Daniel Stan

The safety region of operation of a system is the subset of allowed outputs for which no undesirable outcome would occur. Knowing if a system would ever leave its safety regions of operation is important information for the planning and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-16 Ivan Perez Avellaneda , Luis A. Duffaut Espinosa

The limiting probability distribution is one of the key characteristics of a Markov chain since it shows its long-term behavior. In this paper, for a higher order Markov chain, we establish some properties related to its exact limiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-20 Lixing Han , Jianhong Xu

The spectral gap $\gamma$ of a finite, ergodic, and reversible Markov chain is an important parameter measuring the asymptotic rate of convergence. In applications, the transition matrix $P$ may be unknown, yet one sample of the chain up to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-25 Daniel Hsu , Aryeh Kontorovich , David A. Levin , Yuval Peres , Csaba Szepesvári

The paper studies an improved estimate for the rate of convergence for nonlinear homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains. These processes are nonlinear in terms of the distribution law. Hence, the transition kernels are dependent on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-21 Aleksandr Shchegolev

The maximization of reach-avoid probabilities for stochastic systems is a central topic in the control literature. Yet, the available methods are either restricted to low-dimensional systems or suffer from conservative approximations. To…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Niklas Schmid , Jaeyoun Choi , Oswin So , Chuchu Fan

This paper considers the problem of randomized influence maximization over a Markovian graph process: given a fixed set of nodes whose connectivity graph is evolving as a Markov chain, estimate the probability distribution (over this fixed…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-11-10 Buddhika Nettasinghe , Vikram Krishnamurthy

This article studies the expected occupancy probabilities on an alphabet. Unlike the standard situation, where observations are assumed to be independent and identically distributed (iid), we assume that they follow a regime switching…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-19 Michael Grabchak , Mark Kelbert , Quentin Paris

Motivated by applications arising in networked systems, this work examines controlled regime-switching systems that stem from a mean-variance formulation. A main point is that the switching process is a hidden Markov chain. An additional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-01-21 Zhixin Yang , George Yin , Qing Zhang

We present a Markov-chain analysis of blockwise-stochastic algorithms for solving partially block-separable optimization problems. Our main contributions to the extensive literature on these methods are statements about the Markov operators…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-11-01 D. Russell Luke

We consider the Markov chain approximations for singular stable-like processes. First we obtain properties of some Markov chains. Then we construct the approximating Markov chains and give a necessary condition for weak convergence of these…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-11 Fangjun Xu

We develop some sufficient conditions for the stochastic ordering between hitting times, in a fixed state, for two Markov chains. In particular, we focus attention on the so called \emph{skip-free} case. In the analysis of such a case, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-25 Emilio De Santis , Fabio Spizzichino

Herein, the Hidden Markov Model is expanded to allow for Markov chain observations. In particular, the observations are assumed to be a Markov chain whose one step transition probabilities depend upon the hidden Markov chain. An…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-18 Michael A. Kouritzin

In this work we introduce a new and richer class of finite order Markov chain models and address the following model selection problem: find the Markov model with the minimal set of parameters (minimal Markov model) which is necessary to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-02-04 Jesus E. Garcia Veronica A. Gonzalez-Lopez

The problem of sampling from the stationary distribution of a Markov chain finds widespread applications in a variety of fields. The time required for a Markov chain to converge to its stationary distribution is known as the classical…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-09-14 Shantanav Chakraborty , Kyle Luh , Jérémie Roland
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