Related papers: Some exit times estimates for Super-Brownian motio…
We consider a stochastic differential equation involving standard and fractional Brownian motion with unknown drift parameter to be estimated. We investigate the standard maximum likelihood estimate of the drift parameter, two non-standard…
This paper studies a problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for a sequence of scaled counting processes whose weak limit is a Brownian motion with an unknown drift. The main result of the paper is that the limit of the posterior…
We consider extinction times for a class of birth-death processes commonly found in applications, where there is a control parameter which determines whether the population quickly becomes extinct, or rather persists for a long time. We…
A prediction interval covers a future observation from a random process in repeated sampling, and is typically constructed by identifying a pivotal quantity that is also an ancillary statistic. Analogously, a tolerance interval covers a…
This paper studies the regularity properties of the density of the exit measure for super-Brownian motion with (1+\beta)-stable branching mechanism. It establishes the continuity of the density in dimension d=2 and the unboundedness of the…
We construct and describe the extremal process for variable speed branching Brownian motion, studied recently by Fang and Zeitouni, for the case of piecewise constant speeds; in fact for simplicity we concentrate on the case when the speed…
Be $X_t$ a random process starting at $x \in [0,1]$ with absorbing boundary conditions at both ends of the interval. Denote $P_1(x)$ the probability to first exit at the upper boundary. For Brownian motion, $P_1(x)=x$, equivalent to…
We review some of the theory relevant to passage times of one-dimensional L\'evy processes out of bounded regions, highlighting results that are useful in physical phenomena modelled by heavy-tailed L\'evy flights. The process is…
For an arbitrary diffusion process $X$ with time-homogeneous drift and variance parameters $\mu(x)$ and $\sigma^2(x)$, let $V_\varepsilon$ be $1/\varepsilon$ times the total time $X(t)$ spends in the strip…
Lagrangian motions of fluid particles in a general velocity field oscillating in time are studied with the use of the two-timing method. Our aims are: (i) to calculate systematically the most general and practically usable asymptotic…
Given a standard Brownian motion $B^{\mu}=(B_t^{\mu})_{0\le t\le T}$ with drift $\mu \in \mathbb{R}$ and letting $S_t^{\mu}=\max_{0\le s\le t}B_s^{\mu}$ for $0\le t\le T$, we consider the optimal prediction problem: \[V=\inf_{0\le \tau \le…
Currently, pre-trained models can be considered the default choice for a wide range of NLP tasks. Despite their SoTA results, there is practical evidence that these models may require a different number of computing layers for different…
The L\'evy walk process for the lower interval of the time of flight distribution ($\alpha<1$) and with finite resting time between consecutive flights is discussed. The motion is restricted to a region bounded by two absorbing barriers and…
We obtain large deviation results for a two time-scale model of jump-diffusion processes. The processes on the two time scales are fully inter-dependent, the slow process has small perturbative noise and the fast process is ergodic. Our…
This paper presents a new prediction model for time series data by integrating a time-varying Geometric Brownian Motion model with a pricing mechanism used in financial engineering. Typical time series models such as Auto-Regressive…
Two years ago, Blanco and Fournier (Blanco S. and Fournier R., Europhys. Lett. 2003) calculated the mean first exit time of a domain of a particle undergoing a randomly reoriented ballistic motion which starts from the boundary. They showed…
We define a new variant of exclusion processes in discrete time that has jump probabilities that depend on the last jump performed. In a particular limit for the jump probabilities and in suitable scaling limits for space and time, we…
We consider the one-sided exit problem for fractional Brownian motion (FBM), which is equivalent to the question of the distribution of the lower tail of the maximum of FBM on the unit interval. We improve the bounds given by Molchan (1999)…
We study the mean escape time in a market model with stochastic volatility. The process followed by the volatility is the Cox Ingersoll and Ross process which is widely used to model stock price fluctuations. The market model can be…
The Large Deviation Principle is established for stochastic models defined by past-dependent non linear recursions with small noise. In the Markov case we use the result to obtain an explicit expression for the asymptotics of exit time.