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Predicting extreme events is important in many applications in risk analysis. The extreme-value theory suggests modelling extremes by max-stable distributions. The Bayesian approach provides a natural framework for statistical prediction.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

A theoretical analysis is presented for turbulent flows, applicable for canonical (channel, boundary-layer and free jet) geometries. Momentum and energy balance for a control volume moving at the local mean velocity decouples the…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-02-24 T. -W. Lee

We study stochastic sequences $\xi(k)$ with periodically stationary generalized multiple increments of fractional order which combines cyclostationary, multi-seasonal, integrated and fractionally integrated patterns. We solve the filtering…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-15 Maksym Luz , Mikhail Moklyachuk

A stationary random sequence admits under some assumptions a representation as the sum of two others: one of them is a martingale difference sequence, and another is a so-called coboundary. Such a representation can be used for proving some…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-24 Mikhail Gordin

This paper is about statistical properties of quasistatic dynamical systems. These are a class of non-stationary systems that model situations where the dynamics change very slowly over time due to external influence. We focus on the case…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-07-05 Juho Leppänen

Pickands constants play a crucial role in the asymptotic theory of Gaussian processes. They are commonly defined as the limits of a sequence of expectations involving fractional Brownian motions and, as such, their exact value is often…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-05 Krzysztof Dębicki , Sebastian Engelke , Enkelejd Hashorva

In this paper exponential stability of nonlinear fractional order stochastic system with Poisson jumps is studied in finite dimensional space. Existence and uniqueness of solution, stability and exponential stability results are established…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-15 P. Balasubramaniam , T. Sathiyaraj , K. Priya

The nonparametric volatility estimation problem of a scalar diffusion process observed at equidistant time points is addressed. Using the spectral representation of the volatility in terms of the invariant density and an eigenpair of the…

Applications · Statistics 2016-04-01 Jakub Chorowski

Methods are developed for checking and completing systems of bivariate and multivariate Kendall's tau concordance measures in applications where only partial information about dependencies between variables is available. The concept of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-12 Alexander J. McNeil , Johanna G. Neslehova , Andrew D. Smith

Canonical systems in $\mathbb{R}^2$ with absolutely continuous real symmetric $\pi$-periodic potentials matrices are considered. A through analysis of the discriminant is given along with the indexing and interlacing of the eigenvalues of…

Spectral Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-05 Sonja Currie , Thomas Tobias Roth , Bruce Alastair Watson

In this contribution we discuss the relation between Pickands-type constants defined for certain Brown-Resnick stationary process $W(t),t\in R$ as $$\mathcal{H}_W^\delta= \lim_{T\to\infty} T^{-1} E{ \left(\sup_{t\in \delta Z \cap [0,T]}…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-06 Krzysztof Dębicki , Enkelejd Hashorva

We exploit dynamical properties of diagonal actions to derive results in Diophantine approximations. In particular, we prove that the continued fraction expansion of almost any point on the middle third Cantor set (with respect to the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2011-01-21 Manfred Einsiedler , Lior Fishman , Uri Shapira

Extreme events and the heavy tail distributions driven by them are ubiquitous in various scientific, engineering and financial research. They are typically associated with stochastic instability caused by hidden unresolved processes.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-22 Andrew J. Majda , Xin T. Tong

In the field of classical discrete systems, specifically substitutional alloys, this study introduces a stochastic thermodynamic approach to address nonlinearity within a canonical ensemble. This approach establishes a nonlinear…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-12-15 Koretaka Yuge

Hoeffding-type exponential inequalities are obtained for the distribution tails of canonical von Mises' statistics of arbitrary order based on samples from a stationary sequence of random variables satisfying the {\varphi}-mixing condition.…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-02 I. S. Borisov , N. Volodko

Discrete stability extends the classical notion of stability to random elements in discrete spaces by defining a scaling operation in a randomised way: an integer is transformed into the corresponding binomial distribution. Similarly…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-08-10 Youri Davydov , Ilya Molchanov , Sergei Zuyev

Max-stable processes are widely used to model spatial extremes. These processes exhibit asymptotic dependence meaning that the large values of the process can occur simultaneously over space. Recently, inverted max-stable processes have…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-20 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jonathan A. Tawn

We study a new random matrix ensemble $X$ which is constructed by an application of a two dimensional linear filter to a matrix of iid random variables with infinite fourth moments. Our result gives asymptotic lower and upper bounds for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-12-03 Oliver Pfaffel

The study of multivariate extremes is dominated by multivariate regular variation, although it is well known that this approach does not provide adequate distinction between random vectors whose components are not always simultaneously…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-17 Natalia Nolde , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

We obtain the first probabilistic proof of continuous differentiability of time-dependent optimal boundaries in optimal stopping problems. The underlying stochastic dynamics is a one-dimensional, time-inhomogeneous diffusion. The gain…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-28 Tiziano De Angelis , Damien Lamberton