Related papers: Superstatistics with cut-off tails for financial t…

A 6-parameter fat-tailed distribution is proposed that generalises the t-distribution and allows asymmetry of scale and also of tail power, whilst avoiding the discontinuity of the second derivative of the split-t (AST) distribution. With…

This paper proposes methods for Bayesian inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) quantile regression (QR) models featuring conditional heteroskedasticity. I use data augmentation schemes to render the model conditionally Gaussian and…

This work presents an introduction to feature-based time-series analysis. The time series as a data type is first described, along with an overview of the interdisciplinary time-series analysis literature. I then summarize the range of…

Considerable literature has been devoted to developing statistical inferential results for risk measures, especially for those that are of the form of L-functionals. However, practical and theoretical considerations have highlighted quite a…

In this paper, we consider the problem of linear regression with heavy-tailed distributions. Different from previous studies that use the squared loss to measure the performance, we choose the absolute loss, which is capable of estimating…

Continuous time models in the theory of real options give explicit formulas for optimal exercise strategies when options are simple and the price of an underlying asset follows a geometric Brownian motion. This paper suggests a general,…

This paper introduces the multivariate tail-inflated normal (MTIN) distribution, an elliptical heavy-tails generalization of the multivariate normal (MN). The MTIN belongs to the family of MN scale mixtures by choosing a convenient…

We establish new results for estimation and inference in financial durations models, where events are observed over a given time span, such as a trading day, or a week. For the classical autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models by…

We consider the problem of inference for non-stationary time series with heavy-tailed error distribution. Under a time-varying linear process framework we show that there exists a suitable local approximation by a stationary process with…

In the theory of financial markets, a stylized fact is a qualitative summary of a pattern in financial market data that is observed across multiple assets, asset classes and time horizons. In this article, we test a set of eleven stylized…

In this article we show the relationship between the Pareto distribution and the gamma distribution. This shows that the second one, appropriately extended, explains some anomalies that arise in the practical use of extreme value theory.…

We show that assuming that the returns are independent when conditioned on the value of their variance (volatility), which itself varies in time randomly, then the distribution of returns is well described by the statistics of the sum of…

In recent studies the truncated Levy process (TLP) has been shown to be very promising for the modeling of financial dynamics. In contrast to the Levy process, the TLP has finite moments and can account for both the previously observed…

Despite the successes of probabilistic models based on passing noise through neural networks, recent work has identified that such methods often fail to capture tail behavior accurately, unless the tails of the base distribution are…

We investigate the shape of the Italian personal income distribution using microdata from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth, made publicly available by the Bank of Italy for the years 1977--2002. We find that the upper tail of the…

In this paper we present a rather general phenomenological theory of tick-by-tick dynamics in financial markets. Many well-known aspects, such as the L\'evy scaling form, follow as particular cases of the theory. The theory fully takes into…

This brief paper summarize the chances offered by the Peak-Over-Threshold method, related with analysis of extremes. Identification of appropriate Value at Risk can be solved by fitting data with a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Also an…

This paper measures and compares the tail risks of limit and market orders using Extreme Value Theory. The analysis examines realised tail outcomes using the Dealing 2000-2 electronic broking system based on completed transactions rather…

We generalize Quasi-Linear Means by restricting to the tail of the risk distribution and show that this can be a useful quantity in risk management since it comprises in its general form the Value at Risk, the Tail Value at Risk and the…

We introduce a general class of continuous univariate distributions with positive support obtained by transforming the class of two-piece distributions. We show that this class of distributions is very flexible, easy to implement, and…