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We show how to utilize machine learning approaches to improve sliding window algorithms for approximate frequency estimation problems, under the ``algorithms with predictions'' framework. In this dynamic environment, previous…
This paper presents a robust fixed lag smoother for a class of nonlinear uncertain systems. A unified scheme, which combines a nonlinear robust estimator with a stable fixed lag smoother, is presented to improve the error covariance of the…
We address the curse of dimensionality in dynamic covariance estimation by modeling the underlying co-volatility dynamics of a time series vector through latent time-varying stochastic factors. The use of a global-local shrinkage prior for…
We propose the Bayesian adaptive Lasso (BaLasso) for variable selection and coefficient estimation in linear regression. The BaLasso is adaptive to the signal level by adopting different shrinkage for different coefficients. Furthermore, we…
Sparse linear regression is a central problem in high-dimensional statistics. We study the correlated random design setting, where the covariates are drawn from a multivariate Gaussian $N(0,\Sigma)$, and we seek an estimator with small…
Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are perhaps the most commonly used class of models in statistical applications. Nevertheless, in areas ranging from longitudinal studies in biostatistics to geostatistics, it is easy to find datasets that…
Local projection (LP) and structural vector autoregression (SVAR) are commonly employed to estimate dynamic causal effects of macroeconomic policies at multiple horizons. With enough lags as controls, LP estimators have little bias but…
Recent work has focused on the problem of conducting linear regression when the number of covariates is very large, potentially greater than the sample size. To facilitate this, one useful tool is to assume that the model can be well…
Estimating covariances between financial assets plays an important role in risk management. In practice, when the sample size is small compared to the number of variables, the empirical estimate is known to be very unstable. Here, we…
In applications of Gaussian processes where quantification of uncertainty is of primary interest, it is necessary to accurately characterize the posterior distribution over covariance parameters. This paper proposes an adaptation of the…
In this paper, we consider the Group Lasso estimator of the covariance matrix of a stochastic process corrupted by an additive noise. We propose to estimate the covariance matrix in a high-dimensional setting under the assumption that the…
We present a windowed technique to learn parsimonious time-varying autoregressive models from multivariate timeseries. This unsupervised method uncovers interpretable spatiotemporal structure in data via non-smooth and non-convex…
Model averaging methods have become an increasingly popular tool for improving predictions and dealing with model uncertainty, especially in Bayesian settings. Recently, frequentist model averaging methods such as information theoretic and…
We propose a model to forecast large realized covariance matrices of returns, applying it to the constituents of the S\&P 500 daily. To address the curse of dimensionality, we decompose the return covariance matrix using standard firm-level…
In this paper we consider the construction of simultaneous confidence bands for the spectral density of a stationary time series using a Gaussian approximation for classical lag-window spectral density estimators evaluated at the set of all…
Most forecasting methods use recent past observations (lags) to model the future values of univariate time series. Selecting an adequate number of lags is important for training accurate forecasting models. Several approaches and heuristics…
Estimation of the mean vector and covariance matrix is of central importance in the analysis of multivariate data. In the framework of generalized linear models, usually the variances are certain functions of the means with the normal…
Logistic regression is widely used in many areas of knowledge. Several works compare the performance of lasso and maximum likelihood estimation in logistic regression. However, part of these works do not perform simulation studies and the…
We establish sample complexity guarantees for estimating the covariance matrix of a strongly log-concave smooth distribution using the unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA). We quantitatively compare our complexity estimates on single-chain…
We consider the problem of joint estimation of structured covariance matrices. Assuming the structure is unknown, estimation is achieved using heterogeneous training sets. Namely, given groups of measurements coming from centered…