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Recently, the concept of tail dependence has been discussed in financial applications related to market or credit risk. The multivariate extreme value theory is a proper tool to measure and model dependence, for example, of large loss…

Applications · Statistics 2011-09-27 Marta Ferreira

A multivariate, stationary time series is said to be jointly regularly varying if all its finite-dimensional distributions are multivariate regularly varying. This property is shown to be equivalent to weak convergence of the conditional…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-07-27 Bojan Basrak , Johan Segers

Extreme events and the heavy tail distributions driven by them are ubiquitous in various scientific, engineering and financial research. They are typically associated with stochastic instability caused by hidden unresolved processes.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-22 Andrew J. Majda , Xin T. Tong

Extreme events are often multivariate in nature. A compound extreme occurs when a combination of variables jointly produces a significant impact, even if individual components are not necessarily marginally extreme. Compound extremes have…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-24 Cathy Yin , Adam M. Sykulski , Almut E. D. Veraart

Multivariate stochastic recurrence equations (SREs) are investigated when coefficients are triangular matrices. If coefficient matrices of SREs have all strictly positive elements, the Kesten's classical result yields solutions with…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-01 Muneya Matsui , Witold Świątkowski

In traditional extreme value analysis, the bulk of the data is ignored, and only the tails of the distribution are used for inference. Extreme observations are specified as values that exceed a threshold or as maximum values over distinct…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-20 Mitchell Krock , Julie Bessac , Michael L. Stein , Adam H. Monahan

We consider stationary configurations of points in Euclidean space which are marked by positive random variables called scores. The scores are allowed to depend on the relative positions of other points and outside sources of randomness.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-25 Bojan Basrak , Ilya Molchanov , Hrvoje Planinić

The statistical theory of extremes is extended to observations that are non-stationary and not independent. The non-stationarity over time and space is controlled via the scedasis (tail scale) in the marginal distributions. Spatial…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-10 John H. J. Einmahl , Ana Ferreira , Laurens de Haan , Claudia Neves , Chen Zhou

In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Jean-Francois Muzy , Emmanuel Bacry , Alexey Kozhemyak

The paper investigates random fields in the ball. It studies three types of such fields: restrictions of scalar random fields in the ball to the sphere, spin, and vector random fields. The review of the existing results and new spectral…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-30 N. Leonenko , A. Malyarenko , A. Olenko

Since many environmental processes such as heat waves or precipitation are spatial in extent, it is likely that a single extreme event affects several locations and the areal modeling of extremes is therefore essential if the spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-08-28 Clément Dombry , Frédéric Éyi-Minko , Mathieu Ribatet

In this paper, we consider the tail probabilities of extremals of $\beta$-Jacobi ensemble which plays an important role in multivariate analysis. The key steps in constructing estimators rely on the rate functions of large deviations.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-26 Yutao Ma , Siyu Wang

The estimation of the extremal dependence structure is spoiled by the impact of the bias, which increases with the number of observations used for the estimation. Already known in the univariate setting, the bias correction procedure is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-04-03 Anne-Laure Fougères , Laurens de Haan , Cécile Mercadier

The extreme value theory is very popular in applied sciences including Finance, economics, hydrology and many other disciplines. In univariate extreme value theory, we model the data by a suitable distribution from the general max-domain of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-09 Abhik Ghosh

An analysis of moments and spectra shows that, while the distribution of avalanche areas obeys finite size scaling, that of toppling numbers is universally characterized by a full, nonlinear multifractal spectrum. Rare, large avalanches…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Claudio Tebaldi , Mario De Menech , Attilio L. Stella

This chapter illustrates how tools from univariate and multivariate statistics of extremes can complement classical methods used to study brain signals and enhance the understanding of brain activity and connectivity during specific…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-16 Paolo V. Redondo , Matheus B. Guerrero , Raphaël Huser , Hernando Ombao

In this paper, we study the fluctuations of sums of random variables with distribution defined as a mixture of light-tail and truncated heavy-tail distributions. We focus on the case when both the mixing coefficient and the truncation level…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-31 Vladimir Panov

The stable-regenerative multiple-stable model has been shown recently to have distinct candidate extremal index and extremal index. To understand further this rare phenomenon, two more results are established here for the double-stable…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-10 Shuyang Bai , Rafał Kulik , Yizao Wang

The study of multivariate extremes is dominated by multivariate regular variation, although it is well known that this approach does not provide adequate distinction between random vectors whose components are not always simultaneously…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-17 Natalia Nolde , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Meagan Carney , Mark Holland , Matthew Nicol , Phuong Tran