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For a random variable with a unimodal distribution and finite second moment Gau\ss \, (1823) proved a sharp bound on the probability of the random variable to be outside a symmetric interval around its mode. An alternative proof for it is…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-12 Chris A. J. Klaassen

The statistics of records in sequences of independent, identically distributed random variables is a classic subject of study. One of the earliest results concerns the stochastic independence of record events. Recently, records statistics…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-09-26 Gregor Wergen , Jasper Franke , Joachim Krug

The sample mean is often used to aggregate different unbiased estimates of a parameter, producing a final estimate that is unbiased but possibly high-variance. This paper introduces the Bayesian median of means, an aggregation rule that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-05 Paulo Orenstein

The assumption that data samples are independent and identically distributed (iid) is standard in many areas of statistics and machine learning. Nevertheless, in some settings, such as social networks, infectious disease modeling, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-06 Eli Sherman , Ilya Shpitser

When evaluating and comparing models using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV), the uncertainty of the estimate is typically assessed using the variance of the sampling distribution. Considering the uncertainty is important, as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-16 Tuomas Sivula , Måns Magnusson , Aki Vehtari

The sample selection bias problem arises when a variable of interest is correlated with a latent variable, and involves situations in which the response variable had part of its observations censored. Heckman (1976) proposed a sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Helton Saulo , Roberto Vila , Shayane S. Cordeiro

A common task in high-throughput biology is to test for differences in means between two samples across thousands of features (e.g., genes or proteins), often with only a handful of replicates per sample. Moderated t-tests handle this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-02 Wanyi Ling , Wufang Hong , Nikolaos Ignatiadis

We propose two model-free, permutation-based tests of independence between a pair of random variables. The tests can be applied to samples from any bivariate distribution: continuous, discrete or mixture of those, with light tails or heavy…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-16 Jiří Dvořák , Tomáš Mrkvička

We present a general non-parametric statistical inference theory for integrals of quantiles without assuming any specific sampling design or dependence structure. Technical considerations are accompanied by examples and discussions,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-19 Nadezhda Gribkova , Mengqi Wang , Ričardas Zitikis

For any physical observable in statistical systems, the most frequently studied quantities are its average and standard deviation. Yet, its full distribution often carries extremely interesting information and can be invoked to put any…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-07 R. K. P. Zia , B. Schmittmann

Kagan and Shalaevski 1967 have shown that if the random variables $X_1,\dots,X_n$ are independent and identically distributed and the distribution of $\sum_{i=1}^n(X_i+a_i)^2$ $a_i\in \mathbb{R}$ depends only on $\sum_{i=1}^na_i^2$ , then…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-06 Wiktor Ejsmont

Given well-shuffled data, can we determine whether the data items are statistically (in)dependent? Formally, we consider the problem of testing whether a set of exchangeable random variables are independent. We will show that this is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-25 Marcus Hutter

A classical problem of statistical inference is the valid specification of a model that can account for the statistical dependencies between observations when the true structure is dense, intractable, or unknown. To address this problem, a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-19 Shane Sparkes , Lu Zhang

We develop a new framework of uncertainty variables to model uncertainty. An uncertainty variable is characterized by an uncertainty set, in which its realization is bound to lie, while the conditional uncertainty is characterized by a set…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-10 Rajat Talak , Sertac Karaman , Eytan Modiano

Random models of evolution are instrumental in extracting rates of microscopic evolutionary mechanisms from empirical observations on genetic variation in genome sequences. In this context it is necessary to know the statistical properties…

Biological Physics · Physics 2009-11-07 A. Eriksson , B. Haubold , B. Mehlig

Determining the strength of non-linear statistical dependencies between two variables is a crucial matter in many research fields. The established measure for quantifying such relations is the mutual information. However, estimating mutual…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-07-24 Damián G. Hernández , Inés Samengo

The exact expression is derived for the expected value, $< {p_i}> $, for the parameter for any bin $i$ of a histogram following a multinomial distribution derived by sorting $N$ observations into bins of $B$ classes, if $n_i$ of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-03-18 Jonathan M. Friedman

This paper investigates weighted approximations for studentized $U$-statistics type processes, both with symmetric and antisymmetric kernels, only under the assumption that the distribution of the projection variate is in the domain of…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-11-12 Miklós Csörgő , Barbara Szyszkowicz , Qiying Wang

Randomized experiments have long been the gold standard for scientists seeking to learn about cause and effect. When randomized experiments are infeasible, scientists often resort to observational studies, which are widely available and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Bohan Wu , Sebastian Salazar , Donald P. Green , David M. Blei

In the statistical inference for long range dependent time series the shape of the limit distribution typically depends on unknown parameters. Therefore, we propose to use subsampling. We show the validity of subsampling for general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-20 Annika Betken , Martin Wendler