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Multimodal traffic flow can reflect the health of the transportation system, and its prediction is crucial to urban traffic management. Recent works overemphasize spatio-temporal correlations of traffic flow, ignoring the physical concepts…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-23 Yu Zhao , Pan Deng , Junting Liu , Xiaofeng Jia , Mulan Wang

We consider the problem of estimating the mean of a random vector based on $N$ independent, identically distributed observations. We prove the existence of an estimator that has a near-optimal error in all directions in which the variance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-23 Gabor Lugosi , Shahar Mendelson

Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-16 Evandro Konzen , Claudia Neves , Philip Jonathan

Risk assessment for rare events is essential for understanding systemic stability in complex systems. As rare events are typically highly correlated, it is important to study heavy-tailed multivariate distributions of the relevant…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-02 Efstratios Manolakis , Anton J. Heckens , Benjamin Köhler , Thomas Guhr

Stochastic systems often exhibit multiple viable metastable states that are long-lived. Over very long timescales, fluctuations may push the system to transition between them, drastically changing its macroscopic configuration. In realistic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-04-14 Tobias Grafke , Alessandro Laio

Typical causal effects are defined based on the marginal distribution of potential outcomes. However, many real-world applications require causal estimands involving the joint distribution of potential outcomes to enable more nuanced…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-17 Peng Wu , Xiaojie Mao

Motivated by a need to characterize transient behaviors in large network systems in terms of relevant signal norms and worst-case input scenarios, we propose a novel approach based on existing theory for matrix pseudospectra. We extend…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-10-18 Jonas Hansson , Emma Tegling

We consider again the fast-slow motions setups in the continuous time $\frac {dX_N(t)}{dt}=N^{1/2} \sig(X_N(t))(\xi(tN))+b(X_N(t)),\, t\in [0,T]$ and the discrete time $X_N((n+1)/N)=X_N(n/N)+N^{-1/2}\sig(X_N(n/N))\xi(n)+N^{-1}b(X_N(n/N)),\,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-09 Yuri Kifer

As a motivating problem, we aim to study some special aspects of the marginal distributions of the order statistics for exchangeable and (more generally) for minimally stable non-negative random variables $T_{1},...,T_{r}$. In any case, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-16 Rachele Foschi , Giovanna Nappo , Fabio L. Spizzichino

Self-similar stable mixed moving average processes can be related to nonsingular flows through their minimal representations. Self-similar stable mixed moving averages related to dissipative flows have been studied, as well as processes…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Vladas Pipiras , Murad S. Taqqu

We investigate some statistical and transport properties of the relativistic standard map. Through the Hamiltonian of a wave packet under an electric potential, we are able to obtain a relativistic version of the standard map, where there…

The extremal index $\theta$, a measure of the degree of local dependence in the extremes of a stationary process, plays an important role in extreme value analyses. We estimate $\theta$ semiparametrically, using the relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-02 Paul J. Northrop

Accurately predicting the future motion of surrounding vehicles requires reasoning about the inherent uncertainty in driving behavior. This uncertainty can be loosely decoupled into lateral (e.g., keeping lane, turning) and longitudinal…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-17 Nachiket Deo , Eric M. Wolff , Oscar Beijbom

A multivariate fractional Poisson process was recently defined in Beghin and Macci (2016) by considering a common independent random time change for a finite dimensional vector of independent (non-fractional) Poisson processes; moreover it…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-13 Luisa Beghin , Claudio Macci

In this note, we derive upper-bounds on the statistical estimation rates of unbalanced optimal transport (UOT) maps for the quadratic cost. Our work relies on the stability of the semi-dual formulation of optimal transport (OT) extended to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-18 Adrien Vacher , François-Xavier Vialard

Diffusion processes are widely used for modelling real-world phenomena. Except for select cases however, analytical expressions do not exist for a diffusion process' transitional probabilities. It is proposed that the cumulant truncation…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-13 Melvin M. Varughese

We show that the quasifission paths predicted by the one-body dissipation dynamics, in the slowest phase of a binary reaction, follow a quasistatic path, which represents a sequence of states of thermal equilibrium at a fixed value of the…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2008-11-26 V. P. Aleshin , M. Centelles , X. Viñas , N. G. Nicolis

We have observed a bimodal behaviour of the distribution of the asymmetry between the charges of the two heaviest products resulting from the decay of the quasi-projectile released in binary Xe+Sn and Au+Au collisions from 60 to 100 MeV/u.…

Nuclear Experiment · Physics 2008-11-26 M. Pichon , B. Tamain , R. Bougault , F. Gulminelli , O. Lopez

Let $(X_1,\dots,X_m)$ be self-adjoint non-commutative random variables distributed according to the free Gibbs law given by a sufficiently regular convex and semi-concave potential $V$, and let $(S_1,\dots,S_m)$ be a free semicircular…

Operator Algebras · Mathematics 2020-01-08 David Jekel

We consider transport properties for a non-homogeneous persistent random walk, that may be viewed as a mean-field version of the L\'evy-Lorentz gas, namely a 1-d model characterized by a fat polynomial tail of the distribution of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-06-14 Roberto Artuso , Giampaolo Cristadoro , Manuele Onofri , Mattia Radice