Related papers: Path prediction of aggregated $\alpha$-stable movi…
This paper introduces novel frameworks for large deviations and metastability analysis in heavy-tailed stochastic dynamical systems. We develop and apply these frameworks within the context of stochastic difference equation $X^\eta_{j+1}(x)…
This paper studies the light-tailed asymptotics of the stationary tail probability vectors of a Markov chain of M/G/1 type. Almost all related studies have focused on the typical case, where the transition block matrices in the non-boundary…
We introduce a representation learning framework for spatial trajectories. We represent partial observations of trajectories as probability distributions in a learned latent space, which characterize the uncertainty about unobserved parts…
Predicting the motion of a driver's vehicle is crucial for advanced driving systems, enabling detection of potential risks towards shared control between the driver and automation systems. In this paper, we propose a variational neural…
The expected signature uniquely determines the law of a random rough path under a moment-growth condition, yet finite-sample bounds for estimating it from a single long dependent trajectory have been lacking. We study a stationary…
The tail process $\boldsymbol{Y}=(Y_{\boldsymbol{i}})_{\boldsymbol{i}\in\mathbb{Z}^d}$ of a stationary regularly varying random field $\boldsymbol{X}=(X_{\boldsymbol{i}})_{\boldsymbol{i}\in\mathbb{Z}^d}$ represents the asymptotic local…
The path probability of stochastic motion of non dissipative or quasi-Hamiltonian systems is investigated by numerical experiment. The simulation model generates ideal one-dimensional motion of particles subject only to conservative forces…
We propose a method to obtain phase portraits for stochastic systems. Starting from the Fokker-Planck equation, we separate the dynamics into a convective and a diffusive part. We show that stable and unstable fixed points of the convective…
A variety of estimators for the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution, the approximating distribution for excesses over a high threshold, have been proposed, always assuming the underlying data to be independent. We recently…
Studying sample path behaviour of stochastic fields/processes is a classical research topic in probability theory and related areas such as fractal geometry. To this end, many methods have been developed since a long time in Gaussian…
Quasiperiodic systems serve as fertile ground for studying localisation, due to their propensity already in one dimension to exhibit rich phase diagrams with mobility edges. The deterministic and strongly-correlated nature of the…
The manner in which probability amplitudes of paths sum up to form wave functions of a harmonic oscillator, as well as other, simple 1-dimensional problems, is described. Using known, closed-form, path-based propagators for each problem, an…
In Bayesian applications, there is a huge interest in rapid and accurate estimation of the posterior distribution, particularly for high dimensional or hierarchical models. In this article, we propose to use optimization to solve for a…
We observe a large number of functions differing from each other only by a translation parameter. While the main pattern is unknown, we propose to estimate the shift parameters using $M$-estimators. Fourier transform enables to transform…
Many causal parameters depend on a moment of the joint distribution of potential outcomes. Such parameters are especially relevant in policy evaluation settings, where noncompliance is common and accommodated through the model of Imbens &…
Tail dependence models for distributions attracted to a max-stable law are fitted using observations above a high threshold. To cope with spatial, high-dimensional data, a rank-based M-estimator is proposed relying on bivariate margins…
The fractional stable motion is a prototypical stochastic process exhibiting both heavy tails and long-range dependence, parameterized via a stability index $\alpha$ and a Hurst exponent $H$. We consider a nonstationary extension where the…
The linear fractional stable motion generalizes two prominent classes of stochastic processes, namely stable L\'evy processes, and fractional Brownian motion. For this reason it may be regarded as a basic building block for continuous time…
Stable distributions provide a flexible framework for modeling heavy-tailed and skewed data, with the stability index $\alpha$ quantifying tail heaviness. We propose a new semiparametric estimator for $\alpha$ that leverages the two-sum…
Two of the most popular approximations for the distribution of the steady-state waiting time, $W_{\infty}$, of the M/G/1 queue are the so-called heavy-traffic approximation and heavy-tailed asymptotic, respectively. If the traffic…