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Due to expensive infrastructure and the difficulties in storage, supply conditions of natural gas are different from those of other traditional energy sources like petroleum or coal. To overcome these challenges, supplier countries require…
We examine the problem of modeling and forecasting European Day-Ahead and Month-Ahead natural gas prices. For this, we propose two distinct probabilistic models that can be utilized in risk- and portfolio management. We use daily pricing…
Models simulating household energy demand based on different occupant and household types and their behavioral patterns have received increasing attention over the last years due the need to better understand fundamental characteristics…
The electricity industry is heavily implementing smart grid technologies to improve reliability, availability, security, and efficiency. This implementation needs technological advancements, the development of standards and regulations, as…
Trip distribution laws are basic for the travel demand characterization needed in transport and urban planning. Several approaches have been considered in the last years. One of them is the so-called gravity law, in which the number of…
Urban metro and tram networks are regularly subject to planned disruptions, including closures, resulting from the need to maintain and renew infrastructure. In this study, we first empirically analyse the passenger demand response to…
Research in transportation frequently involve modelling and predicting attributes of events that occur at regular intervals. The event could be arrival of a bus at a bus stop, the volume of a traffic at a particular point, the demand at a…
Extreme weather events during peak winter periods drive resource adequacy risk in Great Britain (GB), with weather sensitivity of the supply-demand balance increasing through additional electric heating and wind generation. This work…
Empirical data of supermarket sales show stylised facts that are similar to stock markets, with a broad (truncated) Levy distribution of weekly sales differences in the baseline sales [R.D. Groot, Physica A 353 (2005) 501]. To investigate…
We propose new probabilistic models for the spatial distribution of supply and demand and use the models to determine how the trip length distribution is affected by the relative shortage or excess of supply, the spatial clustering of…
Energy system models for long-term planning are widely used to explore the future electricity system. Typically, to represent the future electricity demand in these models, historical demand profiles are used directly or scaled up linearly.…
We present a study of the group purchasing behavior of daily deals in Groupon and LivingSocial and introduce a predictive dynamic model of collective attention for group buying behavior. In our model, the aggregate number of purchases at a…
We develop a flexible spline-based Bayesian hidden Markov model stochastic weather generator to statistically model daily precipitation over time by season at individual locations. The model naturally accounts for missing data (considered…
With people constantly migrating to different urban areas, our mobility needs for work, services and leisure are transforming rapidly. The changing urban demographics pose several challenges for the efficient management of transit services.…
Computing the distribution of trajectories from a Gaussian Process model of a dynamical system is an important challenge in utilizing such models. Motivated by the computational cost of sampling-based approaches, we consider approximations…
Understanding the dynamics of passenger interactions and their epidemiological impact throughout public transportation systems is crucial for both service efficiency and public health. High passenger density and close physical proximity has…
Accurate mid-term (weeks to one year) hourly electricity load forecasts are essential for strategic decision-making in power plant operation, ensuring supply security and grid stability, planning and building energy storage systems, and…
The decarbonisation of heat in developed economies represents a significant challenge, with increased penetration of electrical heating technologies potentially leading to unprecedented increases in peak electricity demand. This work…
Economy is demanding new models, able to understand and predict the evolution of markets. To this respect, Econophysics is offering models of markets as complex systems, such as the gas-like model, able to predict money distributions…
The effects of saving and spending patterns on holding time distribution of money are investigated based on the ideal gas-like models. We show the steady-state distribution obeys an exponential law when the saving factor is set uniformly,…