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The contour maps of the error of historical resp. parametric estimates for large random portfolios optimized under the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES) are constructed. Similar maps for the sensitivity of the portfolio weights to small…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-10-19 Fabio Caccioli , Imre Kondor , Gábor Papp

We propose an inference procedure for estimators defined by mathematical programming problems, focusing on the important special cases of linear programming (LP) and quadratic programming (QP). In these settings, the coefficients in both…

Econometrics · Economics 2017-09-27 Yu-Wei Hsieh , Xiaoxia Shi , Matthew Shum

Risk control and optimal diversification constitute a major focus in the finance and insurance industries as well as, more or less consciously, in our everyday life. We present a discussion of the characterization of risks and of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-25 Didier Sornette

Recent studies stressed the fact that covariance matrices computed from empirical financial time series appear to contain a high amount of noise. This makes the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance Optimization model unable to correctly…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-03-03 Justo Puerto , Federica Ricca , Moisés Rodríguez-Madrena , Andrea Scozzari

This paper investigates the equilibrium portfolio selection for smooth ambiguity preferences in a continuous-time market. The investor is uncertain about the risky asset's drift term and updates the subjective belief according to the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-02-17 Guohui Guan , Zongxia Liang , Jianming Xia

Consider a collection of competing machine learning algorithms. Given their performance on a benchmark of datasets, we would like to identify the best performing algorithm. Specifically, which algorithm is most likely to rank highest on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Amichai Painsky

Estimation frameworks for statistical inference are preferred to hypothesis testing when quantifying uncertainty and precise estimation are more valuable than binary decisions about statistical significance. Study design for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Luke Hagar , Nathaniel T. Stevens

We consider the problem of estimating assortment probabilities, which is common in operations management applications, including product bundling, advertising, etc. Existing approaches typically model each assortment as a category and apply…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-23 Alexandre Belloni , Yan Chen , Matthew Harding

This paper studies the properties of the optimal portfolio-consumption strategies in a {finite horizon} robust utility maximization framework with different borrowing and lending rates. In particular, we allow for constraints on both…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-06 Zhou Yang , Gechun Liang , Chao Zhou

This work is entirely devoted to compare the largest claims from two heterogeneous portfolios. It is assumed that the claim amounts in an insurance portfolio are nonnegative absolutely continuous random variables and belong to a general…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-20 Sangita Das , Suchandan Kayal

We first review existing sequential methods for estimating a binomial proportion. Afterward, we propose a new family of group sequential sampling schemes for estimating a binomial proportion with prescribed margin of error and confidence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-05 Zhengjia Chen , Xinjia Chen

We explore a decomposition in which returns on a large class of portfolios relative to the market depend on a smooth non-negative drift and changes in the asset price distribution. This decomposition is obtained using general continuous…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-10-31 Ricardo T. Fernholz , Caleb Stroup

The rapid emergence of massive datasets in various fields poses a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods. Meanwhile, it provides opportunities for researchers to develop novel algorithms. Inspired by the idea of…

Computation · Statistics 2023-04-14 Yuan Gao , Weidong Liu , Hansheng Wang , Xiaozhou Wang , Yibo Yan , Riquan Zhang

Complex scientific models where the likelihood cannot be evaluated present a challenge for statistical inference. Over the past two decades, a wide range of algorithms have been proposed for learning parameters in computationally feasible…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-16 Aden Forrow , Ruth E. Baker

Ranking and comparing items is crucial for collecting information about preferences in many areas, from marketing to politics. The Mallows rank model is among the most successful approaches to analyse rank data, but its computational…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-28 Valeria Vitelli , Øystein Sørensen , Marta Crispino , Arnoldo Frigessi , Elja Arjas

Portfolio optimization approaches inevitably rely on multivariate modeling of markets and the economy. In this paper, we address three sources of error related to the modeling of these complex systems: 1. oversimplifying hypothesis; 2.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-30 Pier Francesco Procacci , Tomaso Aste

A central problem in business concerns the optimal allocation of limited resources to a set of available tasks, where the payoff of these tasks is inherently uncertain. In credit card fraud detection, for instance, a bank can only assign a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-10 Toon Vanderschueren , Bart Baesens , Tim Verdonck , Wouter Verbeke

Recent works have proposed optimal subsampling algorithms to improve computational efficiency in large datasets and to design validation studies in the presence of measurement error. Existing approaches generally fall into two categories:…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-25 Jasper B. Yang , Thomas Lumley , Bryan E. Shepherd , Pamela A. Shaw

We explore the fundamental problem of sorting through the lens of learning-augmented algorithms, where algorithms can leverage possibly erroneous predictions to improve their efficiency. We consider two different settings: In the first…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-11-03 Xingjian Bai , Christian Coester

Importance sampling is a popular variance reduction method for Monte Carlo estimation, where a notorious question is how to design good proposal distributions. While in most cases optimal (zero-variance) estimators are theoretically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-22 Carsten Hartmann , Lorenz Richter