Related papers: Bayesian dynamic variable selection in high dimens…

Linear mixed effects models are widely used in statistical modelling. We consider a mixed effects model with Bayesian variable selection in the random effects using spike-and-slab priors and developed a variational Bayes inference scheme…

Researchers increasingly wish to estimate time-varying parameter (TVP) regressions which involve a large number of explanatory variables. Including prior information to mitigate over-parameterization concerns has led to many using Bayesian…

We propose a fast and theoretically grounded method for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in latent variable regression models. Our framework addresses three interrelated challenges: (i) intractable marginal likelihoods, (ii)…

Variable selection and classification are common objectives in the analysis of high-dimensional data. Most such methods make distributional assumptions that may not be compatible with the diverse families of distributions data can take. A…

There has been an intense development on the estimation of a sparse regression coefficient vector in statistics, machine learning and related fields. In this paper, we focus on the Bayesian approach to this problem, where sparsity is…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold great promise as a flexible and principled solution to deal with uncertainty when learning from finite data. Among approaches to realize probabilistic inference in deep neural networks, variational Bayes…

Both Bayesian and varying coefficient models are very useful tools in practice as they can be used to model parameter heterogeneity in a generalizable way. Motivated by the need of enhancing Marketing Mix Modeling at Uber, we propose a…

In many practices, scientists are particularly interested in detecting which of the predictors are truly associated with a multivariate response. It is more accurate to model multiple responses as one vector rather than separating each…

Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…

Estimating and quantifying uncertainty in unknown system parameters from limited data remains a challenging inverse problem in a variety of real-world applications. While many approaches focus on estimating constant parameters, a subset of…

Collected data, which is used for analysis or prediction tasks, often have a hierarchical structure, for example, data from various people performing the same task. Modeling the data's structure can improve the reliability of the derived…

The quantile varying coefficient (VC) model can flexibly capture dynamical patterns of regression coefficients. In addition, due to the quantile check loss function, it is robust against outliers and heavy-tailed distributions of the…

Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) are the workhorse in macroeconomic forecasting. Research in the last decade has established the importance of allowing time-varying volatility to capture both secular and cyclical variations in…

We develop a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model with multivariate stochastic volatility that is capable of handling vast dimensional information sets. Three features are introduced to permit reliable estimation of the model. First,…

A Bayesian lattice filtering and smoothing approach is proposed for fast and accurate modeling and inference in multivariate non-stationary time series. This approach offers computational feasibility and interpretable time-frequency…

In this paper, we use augmented the hierarchical latent variable model to model multi-period time series, where the dynamics of time series are governed by factors or trends in multiple periods. Previous methods based on stacked recurrent…

This paper provides a simple, yet reliable, alternative to the (Bayesian) estimation of large multivariate VARs with time variation in the conditional mean equations and/or in the covariance structure. With our new methodology, the original…

We present a flexible Bayesian semiparametric mixed model for longitudinal data analysis in the presence of potentially high-dimensional categorical covariates. Building on a novel hidden Markov tensor decomposition technique, our proposed…

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Large-scale and multidimensional spatiotemporal data sets are becoming ubiquitous in many real-world applications such as monitoring urban traffic and air quality. Making predictions on these time series has become a critical challenge due…