Related papers: Bayesian dynamic variable selection in high dimens…
We develop a variational Bayes approach for dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters and predictors that exhibit a predefined group structure. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we…
In this paper, we write the time-varying parameter (TVP) regression model involving K explanatory variables and T observations as a constant coefficient regression model with KT explanatory variables. In contrast with much of the existing…
A novel numerical method for the estimation of large time-varying parameter (TVP) models is proposed. The updating and smoothing estimates of the TVP model are derived within the context of generalised linear least squares and through…
We discuss Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and forecasting in sequential dynamic modeling of multivariate time series. The perspective is that of a decision-maker with a specific forecasting objective that guides thinking about relevant…
Time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility are routinely used for structural analysis and forecasting in settings involving a few endogenous variables. Applying these models to high-dimensional datasets has proved to be…
Time-varying parameter (TVP) regressions commonly assume that time-variation in the coefficients is determined by a simple stochastic process such as a random walk. While such models are capable of capturing a wide range of dynamic…
In this chapter, we review variance selection for time-varying parameter (TVP) models for univariate and multivariate time series within a Bayesian framework. We show how both continuous as well as discrete spike-and-slab shrinkage priors…
Time-varying parameter (TVP) regression models can involve a huge number of coefficients. Careful prior elicitation is required to yield sensible posterior and predictive inferences. In addition, the computational demands of Markov Chain…
This paper proposes methods for Bayesian inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) quantile regression (QR) models featuring conditional heteroskedasticity. I use data augmentation schemes to render the model conditionally Gaussian and…
For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…
Invariant prediction [Peters et al., 2016] analyzes feature/outcome data from multiple environments to identify invariant features - those with a stable predictive relationship to the outcome. Such features support generalization to new…
The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…
The paper proposes a time-varying parameter global vector autoregressive (TVP-GVAR) framework for predicting and analysing developed region economic variables. We want to provide an easily accessible approach for the economy application…
Many economic variables feature changes in their conditional mean and volatility, and Time Varying Vector Autoregressive Models are often used to handle such complexity in the data. Unfortunately, when the number of series grows, they…
We discuss Bayesian forecasting of increasingly high-dimensional time series, a key area of application of stochastic dynamic models in the financial industry and allied areas of business. Novel state-space models characterizing sparse…
Recently, a number of mostly $\ell_1$-norm regularized least squares type deterministic algorithms have been proposed to address the problem of \emph{sparse} adaptive signal estimation and system identification. From a Bayesian perspective,…
This paper proposes two distinct contributions to econometric analysis of large information sets and structural instabilities. First, it treats a regression model with time-varying coefficients, stochastic volatility and exogenous…
Theoretical developments in sequential Bayesian analysis of multivariate dynamic models underlie new methodology for causal prediction. This extends the utility of existing models with computationally efficient methodology, enabling routine…
We propose a new approach to Bayesian prediction that caters for models with a large number of parameters and is robust to model misspecification. Given a class of high-dimensional (but parametric) predictive models, this new approach…
This paper develops a Bayesian procedure for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of multivariate time series. The foundation of this work is the matrix-variate dynamic linear model, for the volatility of which we adopt a…