Related papers: Change-Point Testing for Risk Measures in Time Ser…
Time-series anomaly detection deals with the problem of detecting anomalous timesteps by learning normality from the sequence of observations. However, the concept of normality evolves over time, leading to a "new normal problem", where the…
Encountering shifted data at test time is a ubiquitous challenge when deploying predictive models. Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods address this issue by continuously adapting a deployed model using only unlabeled test data. While TTA can…
We study the problem of detecting a common change point in large panel data based on a mean shift model, wherein the errors exhibit both temporal and cross-sectional dependence. A least squares based procedure is used to estimate the…
We present a general and flexible framework for detecting regime changes in complex, non-stationary data across multi-trial experiments. Traditional change point detection methods focus on identifying abrupt changes within a single time…
Machine learning systems deployed in the real world must operate under dynamic and often unpredictable distribution shifts. This challenges the validity of statistical safety assurances on the system's risk established beforehand. Common…
In a variety of different settings cumulative sum (CUSUM) procedures have been applied for the sequential detection of structural breaks in the parameters of stochastic models. Yet their performance depends strongly on the time of change…
In this paper, we propose a new test for the detection of a change in a non-linear (auto-)regressive time series as well as a corresponding estimator for the unknown time point of the change. To this end, we consider an at-most-one-change…
In this paper the problem of retrospective change-point detection and estimation in multivariate linear models is considered. The lower bounds for the error of change-point estimation are proved in different cases (one change-point:…
We develop a monitoring procedure to detect changes in a large approximate factor model. Letting $r$ be the number of common factors, we base our statistics on the fact that the $\left( r+1\right) $-th eigenvalue of the sample covariance…
High-dimensional time series are characterized by a large number of measurements and complex dependence, and often involve abrupt change points. We propose a new procedure to detect change points in the mean of high-dimensional time series…
In the present paper we address the real-time detection problem of a change-point in the coefficients of a linear model with the possibility that the model errors are asymmetrical and that the explanatory variables number is large. We build…
This paper considers the problem of testing if a sequence of means $(\mu_t)_{t =1,\ldots ,n }$ of a non-stationary time series $(X_t)_{t =1,\ldots ,n }$ is stable in the sense that the difference of the means $\mu_1$ and $\mu_t$ between the…
In this paper we propose a new approach for sequential monitoring of a parameter of a $d$-dimensional time series, which can be estimated by approximately linear functionals of the empirical distribution function. We consider a…
Contagion arising from clustering of multiple time series like those in the stock market indicators can further complicate the nature of volatility, rendering a parametric test (relying on asymptotic distribution) to suffer from issues on…
One of the most important features of financial time series data is volatility. There are often structural changes in volatility over time, and an accurate estimation of the volatility of financial time series requires careful…
A method for testing nonlinearity in time series is described based on information-theoretic functionals -- redundancies, linear and nonlinear forms of which allow either qualitative, or, after incorporating the surrogate data technique,…
We propose a location-adaptive self-normalization (SN) based test for change points in time series. The SN technique has been extensively used in change-point detection for its capability to avoid direct estimation of nuisance parameters.…
It is quite common that the structure of a time series changes abruptly. Identifying these change points and describing the model structure in the segments between these change points is of interest. In this paper, time series data is…
This paper considers the change-point problem for finite sequences of networks. To avoid the difficulty of computing the normalization coefficient, such as in Exponential random graphical models (ERGMs) and Markov networks, we construct a…
This paper introduces a concept for change-point detection based on normalized entropy as a fundamental metric, aiming to overcome the dependence of traditional entropy methods on assumptions about data distribution and absolute scales.…