Related papers: Non-Gaussian Stochastic Volatility Model with Jump…
The solutions of Hamiltonian equations are known to describe the underlying phase space of a mechanical system. In this article, we propose a novel spatio-temporal model using a strategic modification of the Hamiltonian equations,…
This study seeks to advance the understanding and prediction of stock market return uncertainty through the application of advanced deep learning techniques. We introduce a novel deep learning model that utilizes a Gaussian mixture…
A new model for stock price fluctuations is proposed, based upon an analogy with the motion of tracers in Gaussian random fields, as used in turbulent dispersion models and in studies of transport in dynamically disordered media. Analytical…
The random matrix theory method of planar Gaussian diagrammatic expansion is applied to find the mean spectral density of the Hermitian equal-time and non-Hermitian time-lagged cross-covariance estimators, firstly in the form of master…
We study a Monte Carlo algorithm for simulation of probability distributions based on stochastic step functions, and compare to the traditional Metropolis/Hastings method. Unlike the latter, the step function algorithm can produce an…
The particle Gibbs sampler is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample from the full posterior distribution of a state-space model. It does so by executing Gibbs sampling steps on an extended target distribution defined on the…
We address the problem of parameter estimation for diffusion driven stochastic volatility models through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). To avoid degeneracy issues we introduce an innovative reparametrisation defined through…
We develop an efficient sampling approach for handling complex missing data patterns and a large number of missing observations in conditionally Gaussian state space models. Two important examples are dynamic factor models with unbalanced…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonplace in spatial statistics. Although many non-stationary models have been developed, there is arguably a lack of flexibility compared to equipping each location with its own parameters. However, the…
The Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is one of the most widely used Markov Chain Monte Carlo schemes for generating samples from Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm is asymptotically exact, flexible and easy to implement.…
We develop a Bayesian spatio-temporal framework for extreme-value analysis that augments a hierarchical copula model with an autoregressive factor to capture residual temporal dependence in threshold exceedances. The factor can be specified…
We introduce a heterogeneous spatiotemporal GARCH model for geostatistical data or processes on networks, e.g., for modelling and predicting financial return volatility across firms in a latent spatial framework. The model combines…
We investigate the behavior of the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) (Fan, Zhang and Zhang [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 153-193]) for time varying coefficient models where the regressors and errors are non-stationary time series and can…
Value-at-risk is one of the important subjects that extensively used by researchers and practitioners for measuring and managing uncertainty in financial markets. Although value-at-risk is a common risk control instrument, but there are…
We propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on Gibbs sampling with parallel tempering to solve nonlinear optimal control problems. The algorithm is applicable to nonlinear systems with dynamics that can be approximately…
We consider the class of self-similar Gaussian stochastic volatility models, and compute the small-time (near-maturity) asymptotics for the corresponding asset price density, the call and put pricing functions, and the implied volatilities.…
In this paper we consider a fractional stochastic volatility model, that is a model in which the volatility may exhibit a long-range dependent or a rough/antipersistent behavior. We propose a dynamic sequential Monte Carlo methodology that…
We perform a detailed comparison between a Markov Switching Jump Diffusion Model and a Markov Switching {\alpha}-Stable Distribution Model with respect to the analysis of non-stationary data. We show that the jump diffusion model is…
We consider discrete-time observations of a continuous martingale under measurement error. This serves as a fundamental model for high-frequency data in finance, where an efficient price process is observed under microstructure noise. It is…
In this article, we propose a Frozen Gaussian Sampling (FGS) algorithm for simulating nonadiabatic quantum dynamics at metal surfaces with a continuous spectrum. This method consists of a Monte-Carlo algorithm for sampling the initial wave…