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We explore a link between stochastic volatility (SV) and path-dependent volatility (PDV) models. Using assumed density filtering, we map a given SV model into a corresponding PDV representation. The resulting specification is lightweight,…

The ability to accurately model random fields plays a critical role in science and engineering for problems involving uncertain, spatially-varying quantities such as heterogeneous material properties and turbulent flows. Deep generative…

We study Bayesian inference methods for solving linear inverse problems, focusing on hierarchical formulations where the prior or the likelihood function depend on unspecified hyperparameters. In practice, these hyperparameters are often…

Accounting for the complexity of psychological theories requires methods that can predict not only changes in the means of latent variables -- such as personality factors, creativity, or intelligence -- but also changes in their variances.…

Marginalization of latent variables or nuisance parameters is a fundamental aspect of Bayesian inference and uncertainty quantification. In this work, we focus on scalable marginalization of latent variables in modeling correlated data,…

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is…

Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) is a highly efficient method to sample from an unnormalized probability distribution. However, the SVGD update relies on gradients of the log-density, which may not always be available. Existing…

In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for estimating multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) using state space models. A multiplicative model based on inverted Wishart and multivariate singular beta distributions is proposed for…

Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models (GPLVMs) have become increasingly popular for unsupervised tasks such as dimensionality reduction and missing data recovery due to their flexibility and non-linear nature. An importance-weighted…

In recent years, various notions of capacity and complexity have been proposed for characterizing the generalization properties of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in deep learning. Some of the popular notions that correlate well with the…

Modelling noisy data in a network context remains an unavoidable obstacle; fortunately, random matrix theory may comprehensively describe network environments effectively. Thus it necessitates the probabilistic characterisation of these…

The Stochastic Volatility (SV) model and its variants are widely used in the financial sector while recurrent neural network (RNN) models are successfully used in many large-scale industrial applications of Deep Learning. Our article…

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) has been a go-to algorithm for nonconvex stochastic optimization problems arising in machine learning. Its theory however often requires a strong framework to guarantee convergence properties. We hereby…

Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are perhaps the most commonly used class of models in statistical applications. Nevertheless, in areas ranging from longitudinal studies in biostatistics to geostatistics, it is easy to find datasets that…

Gaussian graphical models typically assume a homogeneous structure across all subjects, which is often restrictive in applications. In this article, we propose a weighted pseudo-likelihood approach for graphical modeling which allows…

Variational autoencoders learn distributions of high-dimensional data. They model data with a deep latent-variable model and then fit the model by maximizing a lower bound of the log marginal likelihood. VAEs can capture complex…

The algorithms used to train neural networks, like stochastic gradient descent (SGD), have close parallels to natural processes that navigate a high-dimensional parameter space -- for example protein folding or evolution. Our study uses a…

How to model distribution of sequential data, including but not limited to speech and human motions, is an important ongoing research problem. It has been demonstrated that model capacity can be significantly enhanced by introducing…

Deep latent generative models have attracted increasing attention due to the capacity of combining the strengths of deep learning and probabilistic models in an elegant way. The data representations learned with the models are often…