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This paper proposes a semiparametric stochastic volatility (SV) model that relaxes the restrictive Gaussian assumption in both the return and volatility error terms, allowing them to follow flexible, nonparametric distributions with…
A new robust stochastic volatility (SV) model having Student-t marginals is proposed. Our process is defined through a linear normal regression model driven by a latent gamma process that controls temporal dependence. This gamma process is…
In this paper we consider the simulation-based Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) models. Extending the highly efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo mixture sampler for the SV model proposed in Kim et al. (1998) and Omori…
Stochastic volatility (SV) models mimic many of the stylized facts attributed to time series of asset returns, while maintaining conceptual simplicity. The commonly made assumption of conditionally normally distributed or…
In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…
While stochastic variational inference is relatively well known for scaling inference in Bayesian probabilistic models, related methods also offer ways to circumnavigate the approximation of analytically intractable expectations. The key…
We consider the problem of learning a conditional Gaussian graphical model in the presence of latent variables. Building on recent advances in this field, we suggest a method that decomposes the parameters of a conditional Markov random…
The stochastic gradient noise (SGN) is a significant factor in the success of stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Following the central limit theorem, SGN was initially modeled as Gaussian, and lately, it has been suggested that stochastic…
Bayesian methods for learning Gaussian graphical models offer a principled framework for quantifying model uncertainty and incorporating prior knowledge. However, their scalability is constrained by the computational cost of jointly…
Standard simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models typically assume normally distributed errors, an assumption often violated in real-world datasets that frequently exhibit non-normal, skewed, or heavy-tailed characteristics. New SAR models…
Gaussian and discrete non-Gaussian spatial datasets are common across fields like public health, ecology, geosciences, and social sciences. Bayesian spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs) are a flexible class of models for…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
For a learning task, Gaussian process (GP) is interested in learning the statistical relationship between inputs and outputs, since it offers not only the prediction mean but also the associated variability. The vanilla GP however struggles…
Stable random variables are motivated by the central limit theorem for densities with (potentially) unbounded variance and can be thought of as natural generalizations of the Gaussian distribution to skewed and heavy-tailed phenomenon. In…
We provide a simple method to estimate the parameters of multivariate stochastic volatility models with latent factor structures. These models are very useful as they alleviate the standard curse of dimensionality, allowing the number of…
We introduce a methodology for nonlinear inverse problems using a variational Bayesian approach where the unknown quantity is a spatial field. A structured Bayesian Gaussian process latent variable model is used both to construct a…
Stochastic first-order methods such as Stochastic Extragradient (SEG) or Stochastic Gradient Descent-Ascent (SGDA) for solving smooth minimax problems and, more generally, variational inequality problems (VIP) have been gaining a lot of…
The gradient noise (GN) in the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm is often considered to be Gaussian in the large data regime by assuming that the \emph{classical} central limit theorem (CLT) kicks in. This assumption is often made…
The Gaussian Graphical Model (GGM) is a popular tool for incorporating sparsity into joint multivariate distributions. The G-Wishart distribution, a conjugate prior for precision matrices satisfying general GGM constraints, has now been in…
This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic volatility (SV) modeling by utilizing nonparametric techniques that enhance our ability to capture the volatility of financial time series data, with a particular emphasis on the…