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Advances in architectural design, data availability, and compute have driven remarkable progress in semantic segmentation. Yet, these models often rely on relaxed Bayesian assumptions, omitting critical uncertainty information needed for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-19 M. M. A. Valiuddin , R. J. G. van Sloun , C. G. A. Viviers , P. H. N. de With , F. van der Sommen

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) enable accurate atomistic modelling, but reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) remains elusive. In this study, we investigate two UQ strategies, ensemble learning and D-optimality, within…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-08-06 Fei Shuang , Zixiong Wei , Kai Liu , Wei Gao , Poulumi Dey

Plasticity modelling has long been based on phenomenological models based on ad-hoc assuption of constitutive relations, which are then fitted to limited data. Other work is based on the consideration of physical mechanisms which seek to…

Materials Science · Physics 2022-06-06 Stefan Hiemer , Haidong Fan , Michael Zaiser

This paper introduces a novel uncertainty quantification framework for regression models where the response takes values in a separable metric space, and the predictors are in a Euclidean space. The proposed algorithms can efficiently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-09 Gábor Lugosi , Marcos Matabuena

This study proposes a novel approach to quantifying uncertainties of constitutive relations inferred from noisy experimental data using inverse modelling. We focus on electrochemical systems in which charged species (e.g., Lithium ions) are…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2020-03-12 Athinthra Sethurajan , Sergey Krachkovskiy , Gillian Goward , Bartosz Protas

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly prevalent, offering remarkable text generation capabilities. However, a pressing challenge is their tendency to make confidently wrong predictions, highlighting the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Xiang Gao , Jiaxin Zhang , Lalla Mouatadid , Kamalika Das

We describe a computational framework linking Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods for continuum problems depending on random parameters with Equation-Free (EF) methods for performing continuum deterministic numerics by acting directly…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Yu Zou , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

The vast majority of stochastic simulation models are imperfect in that they fail to exactly emulate real system dynamics. The inexactness of the simulation model, or model discrepancy, can impact the predictive accuracy and usefulness of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-21 Matthew Plumlee , Henry Lam

Data science and informatics tools have been proliferating recently within the computational materials science and catalysis fields. This proliferation has spurned the creation of various frameworks for automated materials screening,…

Materials Science · Physics 2020-02-21 Kevin Tran , Willie Neiswanger , Junwoong Yoon , Qingyang Zhang , Eric Xing , Zachary W. Ulissi

Many applications of machine learning methods involve an iterative protocol in which data are collected, a model is trained, and then outputs of that model are used to choose what data to consider next. For example, one data-driven approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Clara Fannjiang , Stephen Bates , Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Jennifer Listgarten , Michael I. Jordan

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become indispensable tools across various applications, making it more important than ever to ensure the quality and the trustworthiness of their outputs. This has led to growing interest in uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Roman Vashurin , Maiya Goloburda , Preslav Nakov , Maxim Panov

Mathematical models simulate various events under different conditions, enabling an early overview of the system to be implemented in practice, reducing the waste of resources and in less time. In project optimization, these models play a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-05-11 Gustavo Barbosa Libotte , Fran Sérgio Lobato , Francisco Duarte Moura Neto , Gustavo Mendes Platt

Despite their importance for assessing reliability of predictions, uncertainty quantification (UQ) measures for machine learning models have only recently begun to be rigorously characterized. One prominent issue is the curse of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-27 Liam Hodgkinson , Chris van der Heide , Fred Roosta , Michael W. Mahoney

Despite the increasing demand for safer machine learning practices, the use of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods in production remains limited. This limitation is exacerbated by the challenge of validating UQ methods in absence of UQ…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Arthur Pignet , Chiara Regniez , John Klein

Simulating complex physical systems is crucial for understanding and predicting phenomena across diverse fields, such as fluid dynamics and heat transfer, as well as plasma physics and structural mechanics. Traditional approaches rely on…

While generative models have become increasingly prevalent across various domains, fundamental concerns regarding their reliability persist. A crucial yet understudied aspect of these models is the uncertainty quantification surrounding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Giorgio Morales , Frederic Jurie , Jalal Fadili

We introduce an R package for Bayesian modeling and uncertainty quantification for problems involving count ratios. The modeling relies on the assumption that the quantity of interest is the ratio of Poisson means rather than the ratio of…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-12 Matthew LeDuc , Tomoko Matsuo

Explainability and uncertainty quantification are key to trustable artificial intelligence. However, the reasoning behind uncertainty estimates is generally left unexplained. Identifying the drivers of uncertainty complements explanations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Pascal Iversen , Simon Witzke , Katharina Baum , Bernhard Y. Renard

Buildings represent a promising flexibility source to support the integration of renewable energy sources, as they may shift their heating energy consumption over time without impacting users' comfort. However, a building's predicted…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-02 Julie Rousseau , Hanmin Cai , Philipp Heer , Kristina Orehounig , Gabriela Hug

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for the reliable application of computational models in engineering and science. Among surrogate modeling techniques, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is particularly valuable for its…

Computation · Statistics 2025-12-15 Jinglai Li , Hongqiao Wang