Related papers: Model Risk in Real Option Valuation
This paper considers linear model selection when the response is vector-valued and the predictors are randomly observed. We propose a new approach that decouples statistical inference from the selection step in a "post-inference model…
In financial markets, accurately measuring the risk of future fluctuations in asset prices is of paramount importance. Studies such as Carr and Madan have shown that the expected value of the quadratic variation of log prices can be…
We present a multi-objective portfolio decision model that involves selecting both a portfolio of projects and a set of elements to allocate to each project. Our model includes a defined set of objectives to optimize, with projects…
We consider the problem of learning models for risk-sensitive reinforcement learning. We theoretically demonstrate that proper value equivalence, a method of learning models which can be used to plan optimally in the risk-neutral setting,…
We study the upper and lower bounds for prices of European and American style options with the possibility of an external termination, meaning that the contract may be terminated at some random time. Under the assumption that the underlying…
An econometric or statistical model may undergo a marginal gain if we admit a new variable to the model, and a marginal loss if we remove an existing variable from the model. Assuming equality of opportunity among all candidate variables,…
Recent years have seen an increased level of interest in pricing equity options under a stochastic volatility model such as the Heston model. Often, simulating a Heston model is difficult, as a standard finite difference scheme may lead to…
The Kelly criterion provides a general framework for optimizing the growth rate of an investment portfolio over time by maximizing the expected logarithmic utility of wealth. However, the optimality condition of the Kelly criterion is…
The value of an American option is the maximized value of the discounted cash flows from the option. At each time step, one needs to compare the immediate exercise value with the continuation value and decide to exercise as soon as the…
In this work we want to provide a general principle to evaluate the CVA (Credit Value Adjustment) for a vulnerable option, that is an option subject to some default event, concerning the solvability of the issuer. CVA is needed to evaluate…
When pricing options, there may be different views on the instantaneous mean return of the underlying price process. According to Black (1972), where there exist heterogeneous views on the instantaneous mean return, this will result in…
Reliability Options are capacity remuneration mechanisms aimed at enhancing security of supply in electricity systems. They can be framed as call options on electricity sold by power producers to System Operators. This paper provides a…
The collateral choice option allows a collateral-posting party the opportunity to change the type of security in which the collateral is deposited. Due to non-zero collateral basis spreads, this optionality significantly impacts asset…
It is essential to incorporate the impact of investor behavior when modeling the dynamics of asset returns. In this paper, we reconcile behavioral finance and rational finance by incorporating investor behavior within the framework of…
Using detailed Norwegian data on earnings, education and work histories, we estimate a dynamic structural model of education and sector choices that captures rich life-cycle patterns by ability. We validate the model against variation in…
Measuring beliefs about natural disasters is challenging. Deep out-of-the-money options allow investors to hedge at a range of strikes and time horizons, thus the 3-dimensional surface of firm-level option prices provides information on (i)…
Surrender poses one of the major risks to life insurance and a sound modeling of its true probability has direct implication on the risk capital demanded by the Solvency II directive. We add to the existing literature by performing…
The relationship between set-valued risk measures for processes and vectors on the optional filtration is investigated. The equivalence of risk measures for processes and vectors and the equivalence of their penalty function formulations…
Estimating the covariance of asset returns, i.e., the risk model, is a key component of financial portfolio construction and evaluation. Most risk modeling approaches produce a factor model that decomposes the asset variability into two…
The option is a financial derivative, which is regularly employed in reducing the risk of its underlying securities. However, investing in option is still risky. Such risk becomes much severer for speculators who utilize option as a means…