Related papers: An exactly solvable record model for rainfall
We study prediction-assimilation systems, which have become routine in meteorology and oceanography and are rapidly spreading to other areas of the geosciences and of continuum physics. The long-term, nonlinear stability of such a system…
Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification via prediction sets with exact finite-sample coverage. In low dimensions these sets are easy to interpret, but in high-dimensional or structured…
We propose a representation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall in terms of a probabilistic model based on a Markov Random Field, consisting of discrete state variables representing low and high rainfall at grid-scale and daily rainfall…
Precipitation is a large-scale, spatio-temporally heterogeneous phenomenon, with frequent anomalies exhibiting unusually high or low values. We use Markov Random Fields (MRFs) to detect spatio-temporally coherent anomalies in gridded annual…
We consider the zero-range process with arbitrary bounded monotone rates on the complete graph, in the regime where the number of sites diverges while the density of particles per site converges. We determine the asymptotics of the mixing…
The statistics of records in sequences of independent, identically distributed random variables is a classic subject of study. One of the earliest results concerns the stochastic independence of record events. Recently, records statistics…
With the availability of high precision digital sensors and cheap storage medium, it is not uncommon to find large amounts of data collected on almost all measurable attributes, both in nature and man-made habitats. Weather in particular…
The last success problem is an optimal stopping problem that aims to maximize the probability of stopping on the last success in a sequence of independent $n$ Bernoulli trials. In the classical setting where complete information about the…
We study Bernoulli bond percolation on a random recursive tree of size $n$ with percolation parameter $p(n)$ converging to $1$ as $n$ tends to infinity. The sizes of the percolation clusters are naturally stored in a tree. We prove…
Remote sensors are becoming the standard for observing and recording ecological data in the field. Such sensors can record data at fine temporal resolutions, and they can operate under extreme conditions prohibitive to human access.…
Regression-based frameworks for streamflow regionalization are built around catchment attributes that traditionally originate from catchment hydrology, flood frequency analysis and their interplay. In this work, we deviated from this…
Let $\{X_n,n\ge1\}$ be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, taking non-negative integer values, and call $X_n$ a $\delta$-record if $X_n>\max\{X_1,...,X_{n-1}\}+\delta$, where $\delta$ is an integer…
Precipitation exceedance probabilities are widely used in engineering design, risk assessment, and floodplain management. While common approaches like NOAA Atlas 14 assume that extreme precipitation characteristics are stationary over time,…
Accurate precipitation forecasting is a vital challenge of societal importance. Though data-driven approaches have emerged as a widely used solution, solely relying on data-driven approaches has limitations in modeling the underlying…
In this paper, we propose a nonparametric way to test the hypothesis that time-variation in intraday volatility is caused solely by a deterministic and recurrent diurnal pattern. We assume that noisy high-frequency data from a discretely…
We derive an Ito stochastic differential equation for entropy production in nonequilibrium Langevin processes. Introducing a random-time transformation, entropy production obeys a one-dimensional drift-diffusion equation, independent of the…
Considering the first significant digits (noted d) in data sets of dissipation for turbulent flows, the probability to find a given number (d=1 or 2 or... 9) would be 1/9 for an uniform distribution. Instead the probability closely follows…
Many West Nile virus (WNV) forecasting frameworks incorporate entomological or avian surveillance data, which may be unavailable in some regions. We introduce a novel data-parsimonious probabilistic model to predict both the timing of…
From infiltration of water into the soil during rainstorms to seasonal plant growth and death, the ecohydrological processes that are thought to be relevant to the formation of banded vegetation patterns in drylands occur across multiple…
Recent advances in time series research facilitate the development of foundation models. While many state-of-the-art time series foundation models have been introduced, few studies examine their effectiveness in specific downstream…