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We derive generalization error bounds for traditional time-series forecasting models. Our results hold for many standard forecasting tools including autoregressive models, moving average models, and, more generally, linear state-space…
This paper investigates the use of probabilistic neural networks (PNNs) to model aleatoric uncertainty, which refers to the inherent variability in the input-output relationships of a system, often characterized by unequal variance or…
Financial markets are prominent examples for highly non-stationary systems. Sample averaged observables such as variances and correlation coefficients strongly depend on the time window in which they are evaluated. This implies severe…
We estimate density and regression functions for weak dependant datas. Using an exponential inequality obtained by Dedecker and Prieur and in a previous article of the author, we control the deviation between the estimator and the function…
Variational inequalities are a formalism that includes games, minimization, saddle point, and equilibrium problems as special cases. Methods for variational inequalities are therefore universal approaches for many applied tasks, including…
We establish distributional estimates for noncommutative martingales, in the sense of decreasing rearrangements of the spectra of unbounded operators, which generalises the study of distributions of random variables. Our results include…
The classical isomorphism theorems for reversible Markov chains have played an important role in studying the properties of local time processes of strongly symmetric Markov processes~\cite{mr06}, bounding the cover time of a graph by a…
We propose a new approach to apply the chaining technique in conjunction with information-theoretic measures to bound the generalization error of machine learning algorithms. Different from the deterministic chaining approach based on…
We consider a discrete time hidden Markov model where the signal is a stationary Markov chain. When conditioned on the observations, the signal is a Markov chain in a random environment under the conditional measure. It is shown that this…
We study the concentration phenomenon for discrete-time random dynamical systems with an unbounded state space. We develop a heuristic approach towards obtaining exponential concentration inequalities for dynamical systems using an entirely…
This paper tackles the issue of establishing a lower-bound on the asymptotic ratio of survival probabilities between two different initial conditions, asymptotically in time for a given Markov process with extinction. Such a comparison is a…
Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the…
We study the existence of densities for distributions of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. We also obtain relationships between invariant densities of the continuous time process and that of the process observed at jump times. In…
Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics exhibit a variety of complex phenomena far from equilibrium. It inherits challenges of equilibrium, including accurately describing the joint distribution of a large number of configurations, and also…
Let $\{Y_i\}_{i=1}^{\infty}$ be a stationary reversible Markov chain with state space $[N]$, let $(X, \| \cdot \|)$ be a real-valued Banach space and let $f_1, \ldots, f_n: [N] \rightarrow X$ be functions with mean $0$ such that $\|f_i(v)\|…
The aim of this note is to investigate the concentration properties of unbounded functions of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. We derive concentration properties of centered functions with respect to the square of the Lyapunov's…
We study sequential Bayesian inference in stochastic kinetic models with latent factors. Assuming continuous observation of all the reactions, our focus is on joint inference of the unknown reaction rates and the dynamic latent states,…
We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order Markov chains when an upper bound on the order of the chain is known but the true order and nature of the serial dependence are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric…
MCMC methods are used in Bayesian statistics not only to sample from posterior distributions but also to estimate expectations. Underlying functions are most often defined on a continuous state space and can be unbounded. We consider a…
We present the first study of non-deterministic weighted automata under probabilistic semantics. In this semantics words are random events, generated by a Markov chain, and functions computed by weighted automata are random variables. We…