Related papers: Complexity of products: the effect of data regular…

Neural Networks (NNs) have been widely {used in supervised learning} due to their ability to model complex nonlinear patterns, often presented in high-dimensional data such as images and text. However, traditional NNs often lack the ability…

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…

In this paper, we establish a robustification of an on-line algorithm for modelling asset prices within a hidden Markov model (HMM). In this HMM framework, parameters of the model are guided by a Markov chain in discrete time, parameters of…

Predictive inference requires balancing statistical accuracy against informational complexity, yet the choice of complexity measure is usually imposed rather than derived. We treat econometric objects as predictive rules, mappings from…

Latent space models are widely used for analyzing high-dimensional discrete data matrices, such as patient-feature matrices in electronic health records (EHRs), by capturing complex dependence structures through low-dimensional embeddings.…

This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic economic model predictive control (SEMPC) that minimizes average economic cost while satisfying an empirical expected shortfall (EES) constraint to manage risk. A new scenario-based problem…

We develop a machine-learning-based method, Principal Smooth-Dynamics Analysis (PriSDA), to identify patterns in economic development and to automate the development of new theory of economic dynamics. Traditionally, economic growth is…

In structured prediction, the goal is to jointly predict many output variables that together encode a structured object -- a path in a graph, an entity-relation triple, or an ordering of objects. Such a large output space makes learning…

We study the typical learning properties of the recently introduced Soft Margin Classifiers (SMCs), learning realizable and unrealizable tasks, with the tools of Statistical Mechanics. We derive analytically the behaviour of the learning…

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the traditional HMM. However, in many settings the HDP-HMM's strict Markovian constraints are…

There is no single universally accepted definition of "Complexity". There are several perspectives on complexity and what constitutes complex behaviour or complex systems, as opposed to regular, predictable behaviour and simple systems. In…

Hidden Markov Models, HMM's, are mathematical models of Markov processes with state that is hidden, but from which information can leak. They are typically represented as 3-way joint-probability distributions. We use HMM's as denotations of…

Word embedding, a high-dimensional (HD) numerical representation of words generated by machine learning models, has been used for different natural language processing tasks, e.g., translation between two languages. Recently, there has been…

Prior work has explored directly regularizing the output distributions of probabilistic models to alleviate peaky (i.e. over-confident) predictions, a common sign of overfitting. This class of techniques, of which label smoothing is one,…

Economic complexity algorithms aim to uncover the hidden capabilities that drive economic systems. Here, we present a fundamental reinterpretation of two of these algorithms, the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and the Economic Fitness and…

As one of Bayesian analysis tools, Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been used to in extensive applications. Most HMMs are solved by Baum-Welch algorithm (BWHMM) to predict the model parameters, which is difficult to find global optimal…

Markov state models (MSMs) have been successful in computing metastable states, slow relaxation timescales and associated structural changes, and stationary or kinetic experimental observables of complex molecules from large amounts of…

The conformational kinetics of enzymes can be reliably revealed when they are governed by Markovian dynamics. Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are appropriate especially in the case of conformational states that are hardly distinguishable.…

The Evidential Regression Network (ERN) represents a novel approach that integrates deep learning with Dempster-Shafer's theory to predict a target and quantify the associated uncertainty. Guided by the underlying theory, specific…

Economic complexity reflects the amount of knowledge that is embedded in the productive structure of an economy. By combining tools from network science and econometrics, a robust and stable relationship between a country's productive…