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Pairwise comparison data are widely used to infer latent rankings in areas such as sports, social choice, and machine learning. The Bradley-Terry model provides a foundational probabilistic framework but inherently assumes transitive…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Hisaya Okahara , Tomoyuki Nakagawa , Shonosuke Sugasawa

The predictive Bayesian view involves eliciting a sequence of one-step-ahead predictive distributions in lieu of specifying a likelihood function and prior distribution. Recent methods have leveraged predictive distributions which are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-25 Yiu Yin Yung , Stephen M. S. Lee , Edwin Fong

A nonparametric Bayes approach is proposed for the problem of estimating a sparse sequence based on Gaussian random variables. We adopt the popular two-group prior with one component being a point mass at zero, and the other component being…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-31 Yunbo Ouyang , Feng Liang

PageRank and the Bradley-Terry model are competing approaches to ranking entities such as teams in sports tournaments or journals in citation networks. The Bradley-Terry model is a classical statistical method for ranking based on paired…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-13 David Antony Selby

Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-27 Edwin Fong , Simon Lyddon , Chris Holmes

Divide-and-conquer Bayesian methods consist of three steps: dividing the data into smaller computationally manageable subsets, running a sampling algorithm in parallel on all the subsets, and combining parameter draws from all the subsets.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-01 Chunlei Wang , Sanvesh Srivastava

Data transformations are essential for broad applicability of parametric regression models. However, for Bayesian analysis, joint inference of the transformation and model parameters typically involves restrictive parametric transformations…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-29 Daniel R. Kowal , Bohan Wu

A recent trend in Bayesian research has been revisiting generalizations of the likelihood that enable Bayesian inference without requiring the specification of a model for the data generating mechanism. This paper focuses on a Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-03 Antonio R. Linero

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-23 Ajay Jasra , Amin Wu

We consider a binary unsupervised classification problem where each observation is associated with an unobserved label that we want to retrieve. More precisely, we assume that there are two groups of observation: normal and abnormal. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-05-05 Stevenn Volant , Marie-Laure Martin Magniette , Stéphane Robin

Despite their successes, deep neural networks may make unreliable predictions when faced with test data drawn from a distribution different to that of the training data, constituting a major problem for AI safety. While this has recently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-16 Erik Daxberger , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

We present a survey of some of our recent results on Bayesian nonparametric inference for a multitude of stochastic processes. The common feature is that the prior distribution in the cases considered is on suitable sets of piecewise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Denis Belomestny , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

Ranking items based on pairwise comparisons is common, from using match outcomes to rank sports teams to using purchase or survey data to rank consumer products. Statistical inference-based methods such as the Bradley-Terry model, which…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-01-09 Sebastian Morel-Balbi , Alec Kirkley

We describe the application of the Bradley-Terry model to NCAA Division I Men's Ice Hockey. A Bayesian construction gives a joint posterior probability distribution for the log-strength parameters, given a set of game results and a choice…

Applications · Statistics 2023-03-21 John T. Whelan , Adam Wodon

We present a Bayesian nonparametric Poisson factorization model for modeling network data with an unknown and potentially growing number of overlapping communities. The construction is based on completely random measures and allows the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-28 Fadhel Ayed , François Caron

This paper addresses the problem of summarizing the posterior distributions that typically arise, in a Bayesian framework, when dealing with signal decomposition problems with unknown number of components. Such posterior distributions are…

Computation · Statistics 2011-11-29 Alireza Roodaki , Julien Bect , Gilles Fleury

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-13 Daniel W. Heck , Antony M. Overstall , Quentin F. Gronau , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

We propose a methodology for modeling and comparing probability distributions within a Bayesian nonparametric framework. Building on dependent normalized random measures, we consider a prior distribution for a collection of discrete random…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-01 Mario Beraha , Jim E. Griffin

The Bradley-Terry model has previously been used in both Bayesian and frequentist interpretations to evaluate the strengths of sports teams based on win-loss game results. It has also been extended to handle additional possible results such…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-10 John T. Whelan , Jacob E. Klein

We here adopt Bayesian nonparametric mixture models to extend multi-armed bandits in general, and Thompson sampling in particular, to scenarios where there is reward model uncertainty. In the stochastic multi-armed bandit, the reward for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-26 Iñigo Urteaga , Chris H. Wiggins