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When solving forecasting problems including multiple time-series features, existing approaches often fall into two extreme categories, depending on whether to utilize inter-feature information: univariate and complete-multivariate models.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-20 Jaehoon Lee , Hankook Lee , Sungik Choi , Sungjun Cho , Moontae Lee

As predictive algorithms grow in popularity, using the same dataset to both train and test a new model has become routine across research, policy, and industry. Sample-splitting attains valid inference on model properties by using separate…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-27 Bruno Fava

Learning a parametric model from a given dataset indeed enables to capture intrinsic dependencies between random variables via a parametric conditional probability distribution and in turn predict the value of a label variable given…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-14 Elouan Argouarc'h , François Desbouvries , Eric Barat , Eiji Kawasaki

Model Interpretation aims at the extraction of insights from the internals of a trained model. A common approach to address this task is the characterization of relevant features internally encoded in the model that are critical for its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-07 Hamed Behzadi-Khormouji , José Oramas

Process Outcome Prediction entails predicting a discrete property of an unfinished process instance from its partial trace. High-capacity outcome predictors discovered with ensemble and deep learning methods have been shown to achieve top…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-19 Francesco Folino , Luigi Pontieri , Pietro Sabatino

In this paper, we derive copula-based and empirical dependency models (DMs) for simulating non-independent variables, and then propose a new way for determining the distribution of the model outputs conditional on every subset of inputs.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-12 Matieyendou Lamboni

Sub-sampling is a common and often effective method to deal with the computational challenges of large datasets. However, for most statistical models, there is no well-motivated approach for drawing a non-uniform subsample. We show that the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-07 Daniel Ting , Eric Brochu

Extracting predictive models from nonlinear systems is a central task in scientific machine learning. One key problem is the reconciliation between modern data-driven approaches and first principles. Despite rapid advances in machine…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2021-12-03 Tom Z. Jiahao , M. Ani Hsieh , Eric Forgoston

Variance reduction is a family of powerful mechanisms for stochastic optimization that appears to be helpful in many machine learning tasks. It is based on estimating the exact gradient with some recursive sequences. Previously, many papers…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-07 Aleksandr Shestakov , Valery Parfenov , Aleksandr Beznosikov

The ability to interpret machine learning models has become increasingly important now that machine learning is used to inform consequential decisions. We propose an approach called model extraction for interpreting complex, blackbox…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-14 Osbert Bastani , Carolyn Kim , Hamsa Bastani

Fully nonparametric methods for regression from functional data have poor accuracy from a statistical viewpoint, reflecting the fact that their convergence rates are slower than nonparametric rates for the estimation of high-dimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-22 Dong Chen , Peter Hall , Hans-Georg Müller

Ensemble learning, the machine learning paradigm where multiple algorithms are combined, has exhibited promising perfomance in a variety of tasks. The present work focuses on unsupervised ensemble classification. The term unsupervised…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-22 Panagiotis A. Traganitis , Georgios B. Giannakis

We propose and study a method for learning interpretable representations for the task of regression. Features are represented as networks of multi-type expression trees comprised of activation functions common in neural networks in addition…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2019-03-26 William La Cava , Tilak Raj Singh , James Taggart , Srinivas Suri , Jason H. Moore

Change point analysis has applications in a wide variety of fields. The general problem concerns the inference of a change in distribution for a set of time-ordered observations. Sequential detection is an online version in which new data…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-16 David S. Matteson , Nicholas A. James

Graphical models have been popularly used for capturing conditional independence structure in multivariate data, which are often built upon independent and identically distributed observations, limiting their applicability to complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Yuwen Wang , Changyu Liu , Xin He , Junhui Wang

Different dependence scenarios can arise in multivariate extremes, entailing careful selection of an appropriate class of models. In bivariate extremes, the variables are either asymptotically dependent or are asymptotically independent.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-30 Jennifer Wadsworth , Jonathan Tawn , Anthony Davison , Daniel Elton

Autonomous vehicle perception typically relies on modular pipelines that decompose the task into detection, tracking, and prediction. While interpretable, these pipelines suffer from error accumulation and limited inter-task synergy.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Loïc Stratil , Felix Fent , Esteban Rivera , Markus Lienkamp

This paper presents a unified framework for supervised learning and inference procedures using the divide-and-conquer approach for high-dimensional correlated outcomes. We propose a general class of estimators that can be implemented in a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Emily C. Hector , Peter X. -K. Song

Interpretability of Deep Neural Networks using concept-based models offers a promising way to explain model behavior through human-understandable concepts. A parallel line of research focuses on disentangling the data distribution into its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-30 Sanchit Sinha , Guangzhi Xiong , Aidong Zhang

Motivated by normalizing DNA microarray data and by predicting the interest rates, we explore nonparametric estimation of additive models with highly correlated covariates. We introduce two novel approaches for estimating the additive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-05 Jiancheng Jiang , Yingying Fan , Jianqing Fan
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