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Deep learning classifiers are assisting humans in making decisions and hence the user's trust in these models is of paramount importance. Trust is often a function of constant behavior. From an AI model perspective it means given the same…

Empirical modelling often aims for the simplest model consistent with the data. A new technique is presented which quantifies the consistency of the model dynamics as a function of location in state space. As is well-known, traditional…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-10 Patrick E. McSharry , Leonard A. Smith

A new method, with an application program in Matlab code, is proposed for testing item performance models on empirical databases. This method uses data intraclass correlation statistics as expected correlations to which one compares simple…

This paper deals with the problem of model selection for a general class of integer-valued time series. We propose a penalized criterion based on the Poisson quasi-likelihood of the model. Under certain regularity conditions, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-21 Mamadou Lamine Diop , William Kengne

Inference is the process of using facts we know to learn about facts we do not know. A theory of inference gives assumptions necessary to get from the former to the latter, along with a definition for and summary of the resulting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-27 Beau Coker , Cynthia Rudin , Gary King

We study the stability of posterior predictive inferences to the specification of the likelihood model and perturbations of the data generating process. In modern big data analyses, useful broad structural judgements may be elicited from…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Jack Jewson , Jim Q. Smith , Chris Holmes

This paper discusses the fundamental principles of causal inference - the area of statistics that estimates the effect of specific occurrences, treatments, interventions, and exposures on a given outcome from experimental and observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-03 Francesca Dominici , Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Fabrizia Mealli

Statistics is sometimes described as the science of reasoning under uncertainty. Statistical models provide one view of this uncertainty, but what is frequently neglected is the 'invisible' portion of uncertainty: that assumed not to exist…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Oliver L. Pescott , Robin J. Boyd , Gary D. Powney , Gavin B. Stewart

A common problem in numerous research areas, particularly in clinical trials, is to test whether the effect of an explanatory variable on an outcome variable is equivalent across different groups. In practice, these tests are frequently…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-03 Niklas Hagemann , Kathrin Möllenhoff

We consider a problem of data integration. Consider determining which genes affect a disease. The genes, which we call predictor objects, can be measured in different experiments on the same individual. We address the question of finding…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-04 Xin Gao , Raymond J. Carroll

Systems design processes are increasingly reliant on simulation models to inform design decisions. A pervasive issue within the systems engineering community is trusting in the models used to make decisions about complex systems. This work…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Edward Louis , Gregory Mocko , Evan Taylor

The issue of model selection in applied research is of vital importance. Since the true model in such research is not known, which model should be used from among various potential ones is an empirical question. There might exist several…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-05-24 R. Scott Hacker , Abdulnasser Hatemi-J

Recent work has shown that models trained to the same objective, and which achieve similar measures of accuracy on consistent test data, may nonetheless behave very differently on individual predictions. This inconsistency is undesirable in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-17 Emily Black , Klas Leino , Matt Fredrikson

We consider fits to two or more datasets for which results from the sa me experiment share a common systematic uncertainty in addition to their individ ual statistical errors. This is important in extracting the maximum information from a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-09-29 Roger John Barlow

Data analysis based on information from several sources is common in economic and biomedical studies. This setting is often referred to as the data fusion problem, which differs from traditional missing data problems since no complete data…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-07 Wei Li , Shanshan Luo , Wangli Xu

Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-20 Yixin Wang , Alp Kucukelbir , David M. Blei

Model averaging is a useful and robust method for dealing with model uncertainty in statistical analysis. Often, it is useful to consider data subset selection at the same time, in which model selection criteria are used to compare models…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-26 Ethan T. Neil , Jacob W. Sitison

A classical problem of statistical inference is the valid specification of a model that can account for the statistical dependencies between observations when the true structure is dense, intractable, or unknown. To address this problem, a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-19 Shane Sparkes , Lu Zhang

In this paper, we introduce a novel method to generate interpretable regression function estimators. The idea is based on called data-dependent coverings. The aim is to extract from the data a covering of the feature space instead of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-27 Vincent Margot , Jean-Patrick Baudry , Frédéric Guilloux , Olivier Wintenberger

Measuring inter-dataset similarity is an important task in machine learning and data mining with various use cases and applications. Existing methods for measuring inter-dataset similarity are computationally expensive, limited, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Muhammad Rajabinasab , Anton D. Lautrup , Arthur Zimek
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