Related papers: Can GDP measurement be further improved? Data revi…

GDP is a vital measure of a country's economic health, reflecting the total value of goods and services produced. Forecasting GDP growth is essential for economic planning, as it helps governments, businesses, and investors anticipate…

We develop a resource-efficient methodology for measuring economic outlook in news text that combines document embeddings with synthetic training data generated by large language models. Applied to 27 million news articles, the resulting…

Gross Domestic Product(GDP) is a widely used measurement of economic growth representing the market value of all final goods and services produced by a country within a given time. In this paper we question the assumption that GDP measures…

Alternative data sets are widely used for macroeconomic nowcasting together with machine learning--based tools. The latter are often applied without a complete picture of their theoretical nowcasting properties. Against this background,…

UK GDP data is published with a lag time of more than a month and it is often adjusted for prior periods. This paper contemplates breaking away from the historic GDP measure to a more dynamic method using Bank Account, Cheque and Credit…

Growth rate of real GDP per capita, GDPpc, is represented as a sum of two components, a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to population change. The economic trend is modelled by an inverse function of GDPpc…

Today, the economy is greatly influenced by Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of the quantitative relations of AGI on the country's economic parameters. The authors use the analysis…

We develop a novel Bayesian framework for dynamic modeling of mixed frequency data to nowcast quarterly U.S. GDP growth. The introduced framework utilizes foundational Bayesian theory and treats data sampled at different frequencies as…

Using a large quarterly macroeconomic dataset for the period 1960-2017, we document the ability of specific financial ratios from the housing market and firms' aggregate balance sheets to predict GDP over medium-term horizons in the United…

This paper presents a novel machine learning approach to GDP prediction that incorporates volatility as a model weight. The proposed method is specifically designed to identify and select the most relevant macroeconomic variables for…

Using Gretl, I apply ARMA, Vector ARMA, VAR, state-space model with a Kalman filter, transfer-function and intervention models, unit root tests, cointegration test, volatility models (ARCH, GARCH, ARCH-M, GARCH-M, Taylor-Schwert GARCH, GJR,…

Economic growth is measured as the rate of relative change in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Yet, when incomes follow random multiplicative growth, the ensemble-average (GDP per capita) growth rate is higher than the time-average…

This paper synthesizes evidence on climate change impacts specific to U.S. populations. We develop an apples-to-apples comparison of econometric studies that empirically estimate the relationship between climate change and gross domestic…

Many differentially private (DP) data release systems either output DP synthetic data and leave analysts to perform inference as usual, which can lead to severe miscalibration, or output a DP point estimate without a principled way to do…

The aim here is to address the origins of sustainability for the real growth rate in the United States. For over a century of observations on the real GDP per capita of the United States a sustainable two percent growth rate has been…

This paper presents a new way to account for downside and upside risks when producing density nowcasts of GDP growth. The approach relies on modelling location, scale and shape common factors in real-time macroeconomic data. While movements…

There is, among the economist ecosystem, the idea of virtuous public spending as a form of promotion of economic growth. If we think on the way GDP is measured, it is not possible to get that conclusion because it becomes circular:…

How much knowledge is there in an economy? In recent years, data on the mix of products that countries export has been used to construct measures of economic complexity that estimate the knowledge available in an economy and predict future…

As more tech companies engage in rigorous economic analyses, we are confronted with a data problem: in-house papers cannot be replicated due to use of sensitive, proprietary, or private data. Readers are left to assume that the obscured…

We propose a complete reconciliation procedure, resulting in a 'one number forecast' of the GDP figure, coherent with both Income and Expenditure sides' forecasted series, and evaluate its performance on the Australian quarterly GDP series,…