Related papers: Estimating the input of a L\'evy-driven queue by P…
Given a sample from a discretely observed L\'evy process $X=(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ of the finite jump activity, the problem of nonparametric estimation of the L\'evy density $\rho$ corresponding to the process $X$ is studied. An estimator of…
We show on- and off-diagonal upper estimates for the transition densities of symmetric Levy and Levy-type processes. To get the an-diagonal estimates we prove a Nash type inequality for the related Dirichlet form. For the off-diagonal…
In this paper we present a parametric estimation method for certain multi-parameter heavy-tailed L\'evy-driven moving averages. The theory relies on recent multivariate central limit theorems obtained in [3] via Malliavin calculus on…
This paper studies theory and inference of an observation-driven model for time series of counts. It is assumed that the observations follow a Poisson distribution conditioned on an accompanying intensity process, which is equipped with a…
We consider together the retrospective and the sequential change-point detection in a general class of integer-valued time series. The conditional mean of the process depends on a parameter $\theta^*$ which may change over time. We propose…
We analyze a specific class of random systems that are driven by a symmetric L\'{e}vy stable noise. In view of the L\'{e}vy noise sensitivity to the confining "potential landscape" where jumps take place (in other words, to environmental…
Different change-point type models encountered in statistical inference for stochastic processes give rise to different limiting likelihood ratio processes. In a previous paper of one of the authors it was established that one of these…
We investigate the parameter estimation and prediction of two forms of the stochastic SIR model driven by small L\'{e}vy noise with time-dependent periodic transmission. We present consistency and rate of convergence results for the…
Products with intermittent demand are characterized by a high risk of sales losses and obsolescence due to the sporadic occurrence of demand events. Generally, both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting approaches are applied to…
We develop a method that relates the truncated cumulant-function of the fourth order with the L\'evian cumulant-function. This gives us explicit formulas for the L\'evy-parameters, which allow a real-time analysis of the state of a…
Motivated by a capacity allocation problem within a finite planning period, we conduct a transient analysis of a single-server queue with L\'evy input. From a cost minimization perspective, we investigate the error induced by using…
The Poisson log-normal model is a latent variable model that provides a generic framework for the analysis of multivariate count data. Inferring its parameters can be a daunting task since the conditional distribution of the latent…
We consider parameter estimation, hypothesis testing and variable selection for partially time-varying coefficient models. Our asymptotic theory has the useful feature that it can allow dependent, nonstationary error and covariate…
In this paper, we study an approximation scheme for L\'evy processes with drift in terms of a representation that is akin to the celebrated Mehler formula for L\'evy-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. The approximation scheme is based on a…
Based on the concept of a L\'evy copula to describe the dependence structure of a multivariate L\'evy process we present a new estimation procedure. We consider a parametric model for the marginal L\'evy processes as well as for the L\'evy…
We prove some efficient inference results concerning estimation of a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck regression model, which is driven by a non-Gaussian stable Levy process and where the output process is observed at high-frequency over a fixed time…
We give necessary and sufficient conditions guaranteeing that the coupling for L\'evy processes (with non-degenerate jump part) is successful. Our method relies on explicit formulae for the transition semigroup of a compound Poisson process…
McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MVSDEs) describe systems whose dynamics depend on both individual states and the population distribution, and they arise widely in neuroscience, finance, and epidemiology. In many…
Local projections (LPs) are widely used for impulse response analysis, but Bayesian methods face challenges due to the absence of a likelihood function. Existing approaches rely on pseudo-likelihoods, which often result in poorly calibrated…
We study nonparametric Bayesian statistical inference for the parameters governing a pure jump process of the form $$Y_t = \sum_{k=1}^{N(t)} Z_k,~~~ t \ge 0,$$ where $N(t)$ is a standard Poisson process of intensity $\lambda$, and $Z_k$ are…