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Polar fields in solar cycle 23 were about 50% weaker than those in cycle 22. The only theoretical models which have addressed this puzzle are surface transport models and flux-transport dynamo models. Comparing polar fields obtained from…
The dynamic activity of the Sun -- sustained by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in its interior -- modulates the electromagnetic, particulate and radiative environment in space. While solar activity variations on short…
We report observations of a steady 20 year decline of solar photospheric fields at latitudes $\geq$45${^{o}}$ starting from $\sim$1995. This prolonged and continuing decline, combined with the fact that Cycle 24 is already past its peak,…
Coupled flux transport and magneto-frictional simulations are extended to simulate the continuous magnetic field evolution in the global solar corona for over 15 years, from the start of Solar Cycle 23 in 1996. By simplifying the dynamics,…
Prediction of the Sun's magnetic activity is important because of its effect on space environment and climate. However, recent efforts to predict the amplitude of the solar cycle have resulted in diverging forecasts with no consensus.…
A well-established, comprehensive 3-D numerical modulation model is applied to simulate galactic protons, electrons and positrons from May 2011 to May 2015, including the solar magnetic polarity reversal of Solar Cycle 24. The objective is…
In this work we predict the maximum amplitude, its time of occurrence, and the total length of Solar Cycle 24 by linear regression to the curvature (second derivative) at the preceding minimum of a smoothed version of the sunspots time…
Long-term sunspot observations and solar activity reconstructions reveal that the Sun occasionally slips into quiescent phases known as solar grand minima, the dynamics during which is not well understood. We use a flux transport dynamo…
The launches of Parker Solar Probe (Parker) and Solar Orbiter (SolO) are enabling a new era of solar wind studies that track the solar wind from its origin at the photosphere, through the corona, to multiple vantage points in the inner…
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…
Most of the intracyclic variability in the large-scale solar magnetic field comes from the equatorial dipole component of the solar magnetic field. The equatorial dipole component is highly sensitive to the longitude distribution of the…
The prediction of the evolution of individual solar cycles is a developing field, faced with divergence of forecasts even for a few years in the future. Specifically for solar flares, long-term modeling is practically absent even in rough…
We have used semi-synthetic records of emerging sunspot groups based on sunspot number data as input for a surface flux transport model to reconstruct the evolution of the large-scale solar magnetic field and the open heliospheric flux from…
The meridional circulation of the solar magnetic fields in Solar Cycles 21-24 was considered. Data from both ground-based and space observatories were used. Three types of time-latitude distributions of photospheric magnetic fields and…
Photospheric magnetic fields were studied using the Kitt Peak synoptic maps for 1976-2003. Only strong magnetic fields (B>100 G) of the equatorial region were taken into account. The north-south asymmetry of the magnetic fluxes was…
Solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and the amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factors of such a harmonic oscillator are estimated by non-linear fitting the equation of sinusoidal and transient parts to…
The solar magnetic activity cycle causes changes in the Sun on timescales that are relevant to human lifetimes. The minimum in solar activity that preceded the current solar cycle (cycle 24) was deeper and quieter than any other recent…
It is proposed that the observed near-surface inflows towards the active regions and sunspot zones provide a nonlinear feedback mechanism that limits the amplitude of a Babcock-Leighton-type solar dynamo and determines the variation of the…
Solar magnetic activity follows regular cycles of about 11 years with an inversion of polarity in the poles every 22 years. This changing surface magnetism impacts the properties of the acoustic modes. The acoustic mode frequency shifts are…
It is known that the tilt angles of active regions increase with their latitude (Joy's law). It has never been checked before, however, whether the average tilt angles change from one cycle to another. Flux transport models show the…