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Predictive models that generalize well under distributional shift are often desirable and sometimes crucial to building robust and reliable machine learning applications. We focus on distributional shift that arises in causal inference from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-27 Fredrik D. Johansson , Nathan Kallus , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

Most work on causality in machine learning assumes that causal relationships are driven by a constant underlying process. However, the flexibility of agents' actions or tipping points in the environmental process can change the qualitative…

With the increasing impact of algorithmic decision-making on human lives, the interpretability of models has become a critical issue in machine learning. Counterfactual explanation is an important method in the field of interpretable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-17 Ao Xu , Tieru Wu

This paper discusses the problem of causal query in observational data with hidden variables, with the aim of seeking the change of an outcome when "manipulating" a variable while given a set of plausible confounding variables which affect…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Le

Inferring causal relationships from observed data is an important task, yet it becomes challenging when the data is subject to various external interferences. Most of these interferences are the additional effects of external factors on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Ruichu Cai , Xiaokai Huang , Wei Chen , Zijian Li , Zhifeng Hao

Predictive models -- learned from observational data not covering the complete data distribution -- can rely on spurious correlations in the data for making predictions. These correlations make the models brittle and hinder generalization.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-16 Khurram Javed , Martha White , Yoshua Bengio

Recognizing the prevalence of domain shift as a common challenge in machine learning, various domain generalization (DG) techniques have been developed to enhance the performance of machine learning systems when dealing with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Yujie Lin , Chen Zhao , Minglai Shao , Baoluo Meng , Xujiang Zhao , Haifeng Chen

Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gianlucca Zuin , Adriano Veloso

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-05 Martin Emil Jakobsen

Machine Learning systems are increasingly prevalent across healthcare, law enforcement, and finance but often operate on historical data, which may carry biases against certain demographic groups. Causal and counterfactual fairness provides…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Jake Robertson , Noah Hollmann , Noor Awad , Frank Hutter

Despite the success of machine learning applications in science, industry, and society in general, many approaches are known to be non-robust, often relying on spurious correlations to make predictions. Spuriousness occurs when some…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-06-04 Chun-Hao Chang , George Alexandru Adam , Anna Goldenberg

In many application areas, predictive models are used to support or make important decisions. There is increasing awareness that these models may contain spurious or otherwise undesirable correlations. Such correlations may arise from a…

Applications · Statistics 2021-09-21 Emanuele Aliverti , Kristian Lum , James E. Johndrow , David B. Dunson

Causal inference is often portrayed as fundamentally distinct from predictive modeling, with its own terminology, goals, and intellectual challenges. But at its core, causal inference is simply a structured instance of prediction under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Carlos Fernández-Loría

In numerous predictive scenarios, the predictive model affects the sampling distribution; for example, job applicants often meticulously craft their resumes to navigate through a screening systems. Such shifts in distribution are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-14 Daniele Bracale , Subha Maity , Moulinath Banerjee , Yuekai Sun

Causal structure learning from observational data remains a non-trivial task due to various factors such as finite sampling, unobserved confounding factors, and measurement errors. Constraint-based and score-based methods tend to suffer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-09 Rezaur Rashid , Jawad Chowdhury , Gabriel Terejanu

Statistical learning relies upon data sampled from a distribution, and we usually do not care what actually generated it in the first place. From the point of view of causal modeling, the structure of each distribution is induced by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-11 Giambattista Parascandolo , Niki Kilbertus , Mateo Rojas-Carulla , Bernhard Schölkopf

Transporting causal information across populations is a critical challenge in clinical decision-making. Causal modeling provides criteria for identifiability and transportability, but these require knowledge of the causal graph, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-03 Konstantina Lelova , Gregory F. Cooper , Sofia Triantafillou

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is relevant for many applications (e.g., personalized medicine). Yet, state-of-the-art methods build upon simple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, thus rendering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

Domain generalization aims to learn knowledge invariant across different distributions while semantically meaningful for downstream tasks from multiple source domains, to improve the model's generalization ability on unseen target domains.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Yunqi Wang , Furui Liu , Zhitang Chen , Qing Lian , Shoubo Hu , Jianye Hao , Yik-Chung Wu

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Christopher Stith , Medha Barath , Vahid Balazadeh , Jesse C. Cresswell , Rahul G. Krishnan
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