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This paper develops algorithms for high-dimensional stochastic control problems based on deep learning and dynamic programming. Unlike classical approximate dynamic programming approaches, we first approximate the optimal policy by means of…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-21 Côme Huré , Huyên Pham , Achref Bachouch , Nicolas Langrené

Distribution Regression on path-space refers to the task of learning functions mapping the law of a stochastic process to a scalar target. The learning procedure based on the notion of path-signature, i.e. a classical transform from rough…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-05 Blanka Horvath , Maud Lemercier , Chong Liu , Terry Lyons , Cristopher Salvi

In this paper we consider a method of solving optimal stopping problems in discrete and continuous time based on their dual representation. A novel and generic simulation-based optimization algorithm not involving nested simulations is…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-10 Denis Belomestny

We study automated intrusion prevention using reinforcement learning. In a novel approach, we formulate the problem of intrusion prevention as an optimal stopping problem. This formulation allows us insight into the structure of the optimal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-04-23 Kim Hammar , Rolf Stadler

Sequential analysis encompasses simulation theories and methods where the sample size is determined dynamically based on accumulating data. Since the conceptual inception, numerous sequential stopping rules have been introduced, and many…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Jiezhong Wu , Reiichiro Kawai

An algorithm is proposed that enables the imposition of shape constraints on regression curves, without requiring the constraints to be written as closed-form expressions, nor assuming the functional form of the loss function. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-08 Kenyon Ng , Berwin A. Turlach , Kevin Murray

We present two Monte Carlo sampling algorithms for probabilistic inference that guarantee polynomial-time convergence for a larger class of network than current sampling algorithms provide. These new methods are variants of the known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-18 Malcolm Pradhan , Paul Dagum

We develop two Regression Monte Carlo algorithms (value and performance iteration) to solve general problems of optimal stochastic control of discrete-time Markov processes. We formulate our method within an innovative framework that allow…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-12-29 Alessandro Balata , Jan Palczewski

We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) approach to model optimal exercise strategies for option-type products. We pursue the RL avenue in order to learn the optimal action-value function of the underlying stopping problem. In addition to…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-27 John Ery , Loris Michel

Optimal designs are usually model-dependent and likely to be sub-optimal if the postulated model is not correctly specified. In practice, it is common that a researcher has a list of candidate models at hand and a design has to be found…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-29 Mingyao Ai , Holger Dette , Zhengfu Liu , Jun Yu

We propose a novel reformulation of the stochastic optimal control problem as an approximate inference problem, demonstrating, that such a interpretation leads to new practical methods for the original problem. In particular we characterise…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2010-09-22 Konrad Rawlik , Marc Toussaint , Sethu Vijayakumar

When the underlying conditional density is known, conditional expectations can be computed analytically or numerically. When, however, such knowledge is not available and instead we are given a collection of training data, the goal of this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-19 George V. Moustakides

Various algorithms for reinforcement learning (RL) exhibit dramatic variation in their convergence rates as a function of problem structure. Such problem-dependent behavior is not captured by worst-case analyses and has accordingly inspired…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-24 Koulik Khamaru , Eric Xia , Martin J. Wainwright , Michael I. Jordan

This paper explores continuous-time and state-space optimal stopping problems from a reinforcement learning perspective. We begin by formulating the stopping problem using randomized stopping times, where the decision maker's control is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-12 Jodi Dianetti , Giorgio Ferrari , Renyuan Xu

In the day-to-day operation of a power system, the system operator repeatedly solves short-term generation planning problems. When formulating these problems the operators have to weigh the risk of costly failures against increased…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-12-31 Magnus Perninge

We show that deliberately introducing a nested simulation stage can lead to significant variance reductions when comparing two stopping times by Monte Carlo. We derive the optimal number of nested simulations and prove that the algorithm is…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-02-04 Fabian Dickmann , Nikolaus Schweizer

In this paper we study simulation based optimization algorithms for solving discrete time optimal stopping problems. This type of algorithms became popular among practioneers working in the area of quantitative finance. Using large…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2009-09-22 Denis Belomestny

We investigate Monte Carlo based algorithms for solving stochastic control problems with probabilistic constraints. Our motivation comes from microgrid management, where the controller tries to optimally dispatch a diesel generator while…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-02-06 Alessandro Balata , Michael Ludkovski , Aditya Maheshwari , Jan Palczewski

Optimal stopping is the problem of determining when to stop a stochastic system in order to maximize reward, which is of practical importance in domains such as finance, operations management and healthcare. Existing methods for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-28 Xinyi Guan , Velibor V. Mišić

In a classical optimal stopping problem the aim is to maximize the expected value of a functional of a diffusion evaluated at a stopping time. This note considers optimal stopping problems beyond this paradigm. We study problems in which…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-04 Vicky Henderson , David Hobson , Matthew Zeng