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This study identifies the key factors influencing the price movements of major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Binance Coin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, and Tether, using Bayesian networks (BNs). This study addresses two key challenges:…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-22 Rasoul Amirzadeh , Asef Nazari , Dhananjay Thiruvady , Mong Shan Ee

This paper studies the forecasting ability of cryptocurrency time series. This study is about the four most capitalized cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple. Different Bayesian models are compared, including models with…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-09-17 Rick Bohte , Luca Rossini

Cryptocurrencies fluctuate in markets with high price volatility, posing significant challenges for investors. To aid in informed decision-making, systems predicting cryptocurrency market movements have been developed, typically focusing on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Amit Kumar , Taoran Ji

Cryptocurrency is a form of digital currency using cryptographic techniques in a decentralized system for secure peer-to-peer transactions. It is gaining much popularity over traditional methods of payments because it facilitates a very…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Samyak Jain , Sarthak Johari , Radhakrishnan Delhibabu

This paper introduces new methods to study behaviours among the 52 largest cryptocurrencies between 01-01-2019 and 30-06-2021. First, we explore evolutionary correlation behaviours and apply a recently proposed turning point algorithm to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-11-15 Nick James , Max Menzies

In recent years, cryptocurrencies have attracted growing attention from both private investors and institutions. Among them, Bitcoin stands out for its impressive volatility and widespread influence. This paper explores the predictability…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-29 Grégory Bournassenko

This document analyzes price discovery in cryptocurrency markets by comparing centralized and decentralized exchanges, as well as spot and futures markets. The study focuses first on Ethereum (ETH) and then applies a similar approach to…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-11 Juan Plazuelo Pascual , Carlos Tardon Rubio , Juan Toro Cebada , Angel Hernando Veciana

Following the birth of Bitcoin and the introduction of the Ethereum ERC20 protocol a decade ago, recent years have witnessed a growing number of cryptographic tokens that are being introduced by researchers, private sector companies and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-04-20 Shahar Somin , Goren Gordon , Alex Pentland , Erez Shmueli , Yaniv Altshuler

Based on the high-frequency recordings from Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange and professional trading platform that aims to bring Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies into the mainstream, the multiscale cross-correlations involving the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-22 Stanisław Drożdż , Ludovico Minati , Paweł Oświęcimka , Marek Stanuszek , Marcin Wątorek

The paper analyzes the cryptocurrency ecosystem at both the aggregate and individual levels to understand the factors that impact future volatility. The study uses high-frequency panel data from 2020 to 2022 to examine the relationship…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-09 Alessio Brini , Jimmie Lenz

Cryptocurrencies return cross-predictability and technological similarity yield information on risk propagation and market segmentation. To investigate these effects, we build a time-varying network for cryptocurrencies, based on the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-27 Li Guo , Wolfgang Karl Härdle , Yubo Tao

Cryptocurrencies return cross-predictability and technological similarity yield information on risk propagation and market segmentation. To investigate these effects, we build a time-varying network for cryptocurrencies, based on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-18 Li Guo , Wolfgang Karl Härdle , Yubo Tao

Over the last decade, the cryptocurrency market has experienced unprecedented growth, emerging as a prominent financial market. As this market rapidly evolves, it necessitates re-evaluating which cryptocurrencies command the market and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-31 Arnav Hiray , Pratvi Shah , Vishwa Shah , Agam Shah , Sudheer Chava , Mukesh Tiwari

As cryptocurrencies gain popularity and credibility, marketplaces for cryptocurrencies are growing in importance. Understanding the dynamics of these markets can help to assess how viable the cryptocurrnency ecosystem is and how design…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2018-04-25 Peter M Krafft , Nicolás Della Penna , Alex Pentland

Recently, cryptocurrencies have attracted a growing interest from investors, practitioners and researchers. Nevertheless, few studies have focused on the predictability of them. In this paper we propose a new and comprehensive study about…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-27 Roy Cerqueti , Massimiliano Giacalone , Raffaele Mattera

Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain-based technologies are disrupting all markets. While the potential of such technologies remains to be seen, there is a current need to understand emergent patterns of user behavior and token adoption in order…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-05-26 Alfredo J. Morales , Shahar Somin , Yaniv Altshuler , Alex 'Sandy' Pentland

This paper describes an architecture for predicting the price of cryptocurrencies for the next seven days using the Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Historical data of cryptocurrencies and indexes that are considered…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-06 Ali Mehrban , Pegah Ahadian

This paper investigates the evolving link between cryptocurrency and equity markets in the context of the recent wave of corporate Bitcoin (BTC) treasury strategies. We assemble a dataset of 39 publicly listed firms holding BTC, from their…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-05-21 Sabrina Aufiero , Antonio Briola , Tesfaye Salarin , Fabio Caccioli , Silvia Bartolucci , Tomaso Aste

In this study the cross-correlations between the cryptocurrency market represented by the two most liquid and highest-capitalized cryptocurrencies: bitcoin and ethereum, on the one side, and the instruments representing the traditional…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-03-02 Marcin Wątorek , Jarosław Kwapień , Stanisław Drożdż

This paper offers a thorough examination of the univariate predictability in cryptocurrency time-series. By exploiting a combination of complexity measure and model predictions we explore the cryptocurrencies time-series forecasting task…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-14 Francesco Puoti , Fabrizio Pittorino , Manuel Roveri