Related papers: Concentration bounds for empirical conditional val…
Expected Shortfall (ES, also known as CVaR) is the most important coherent risk measure in finance, insurance, risk management, and engineering. Recently, Wang and Zitikis (2021) put forward four economic axioms for portfolio risk…
We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…
The extreme cases of risk measures, when considered within the context of distributional ambiguity, provide significant guidance for practitioners specializing in risk management of quantitative finance and insurance. In contrast to the…
Entropic Value-at-Risk (EVaR) measure is a convenient coherent risk measure. Due to certain difficulties in finding its analytical representation, it was previously calculated explicitly only for the normal distribution. We succeeded to…
Value at Risk (VaR) is a quantitative measure used to evaluate the risk linked to the potential loss of investment or capital. Estimation of the VaR entails the quantification of prospective losses in a portfolio of investments, using a…
While maximizing expected return is the goal in most reinforcement learning approaches, risk-sensitive objectives such as conditional value at risk (CVaR) are more suitable for many high-stakes applications. However, relatively little is…
We consider the problem of estimating the Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk from independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples. For the classic sample average approximation (SAA) of OCE, we derive mean-squared error as…
We consider a class of chance-constrained programs in which profit needs to be maximized while enforcing that a given adverse event remains rare. Using techniques from large deviations and extreme value theory, we show how the optimal value…
We study risk-sensitive planning under partial observability using the dynamic risk measure Iterated Conditional Value-at-Risk (ICVaR). A policy evaluation algorithm for ICVaR is developed with finite-time performance guarantees that do not…
This paper focuses on the class of routing games that have uncertain costs. Assuming that agents are risk-averse and select paths with minimum conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) associated to them, we define the notion of CVaR-based Wardrop…
We introduce the Value-at-Risk Constrained Policy Optimization algorithm (VaR-CPO), a sample efficient and conservative method designed to optimize Value-at-Risk (VaR) constrained reinforcement learning (RL) problems. Empirically, we…
Considering non-stationary environments in online optimization enables decision-maker to effectively adapt to changes and improve its performance over time. In such cases, it is favorable to adopt a strategy that minimizes the negative…
Measuring risk is at the center of modern financial risk management. As the world economy is becoming more complex and standard modeling assumptions are violated, the advanced artificial intelligence solutions may provide the right tools to…
Obtaining guarantees on the convergence of the minimizers of empirical risks to the ones of the true risk is a fundamental matter in statistical learning. Instead of deriving guarantees on the usual estimation error, the goal of this paper…
In safety-critical applications of reinforcement learning such as healthcare and robotics, it is often desirable to optimize risk-sensitive objectives that account for tail outcomes rather than expected reward. We prove the first regret…
In this paper we discuss a general methodology to compute the market risk measure over long time horizons and at extreme percentiles, which are the typical conditions needed for estimating Economic Capital. The proposed approach extends the…
${\rm CoVaR}$ is one of the most important measures of financial systemic risks. It is defined as the risk of a financial portfolio conditional on another financial portfolio being at risk. In this paper we first develop a Monte-Carlo…
In this paper, we investigate risk measures such as value at risk (VaR) and the conditional tail expectation (CTE) of the extreme (maximum and minimum) and the aggregate (total) of two dependent risks. In finance, insurance and the other…
In this paper a class of combinatorial optimization problems is discussed. It is assumed that a solution can be constructed in two stages. The current first-stage costs are precisely known, while the future second-stage costs are only known…
Under the framework of dynamic conditional score, we propose a parametric forecasting model for Value-at-Risk based on the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (Hereinafter NIG-DCS-VaR), which creatively incorporates intraday information…