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This chapter aims to inform a practitioner about current methods for predicting potential distributions of invasive species. It mostly addresses single species models, covering the conceptual bases, touching on mechanistic models, and then…
In this paper, we develop a method to estimate the infection-rate of a disease, over a region, as a field that varies in space and time. To do so, we use time-series of case-counts of symptomatic patients as observed in the areal units that…
Spatio-temporal pathogen spread is often partially observed at the metapopulation scale. Available data correspond to proxies and are incomplete, censored and heterogeneous. Moreover, representing such biological systems often leads to…
Recently we have introduced a simplified model of ecosystem assembly (Capitan et al., 2009) for which we are able to map out all assembly pathways generated by external invasions in an exact manner. In this paper we provide a deeper…
We consider the challenges that arise when fitting complex ecological models to 'large' data sets. In particular, we focus on random effect models which are commonly used to describe individual heterogeneity, often present in ecological…
Both community ecology and conservation biology seek further understanding of factors governing the advance of an invasive species. We model biological invasion as an individual-based, stochastic process on a two-dimensional landscape. An…
Coalescent models are used to study the transmission dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens from molecular sequence data obtained from infected individuals. However coalescent parameters, such as effective population size, offer limited…
Explaining why the species lives at a particular location is important for understanding ecological systems and conserving biodiversity. However, existing ecological workflows are fragmented and often inaccessible to non-specialists. We…
Marine invasive species spread through global shipping and generate substantial ecological and economic impacts. Traditional risk assessments require detailed records of ballast water and traffic patterns, which are often incomplete,…
Presence-only data are a typical occurrence in species distribution modeling. They include the presence locations and no information on the absence. Their modeling usually does not account for detection biases. In this work, we aim to merge…
We present a proof-of-concept of a model comparison approach for analyzing spatio-temporal observations of interacting populations. Our model variants are a collection of structurally similar Bayesian networks. Their distinct Noisy-Or…
The importation and subsequent establishment of novel pathogenic strains in a population is subject to a large degree of uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of the disease dynamics. Mathematical models need to take this stochasticity…
It is essential to understand the dynamics of epidemics in the presence of coexisting pathogens. There are various phenomenon that can effect the dynamics. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model using different assumptions to…
We propose a numerical approach to study the invasion fitness of a mutant and to determine evolutionary singular strategies in evolutionary structured models in which the competitive exclusion principle holds. Our approach is based on a…
Accurate information on patterns of introduction and spread of non-native species is essential for making predictions and management decisions. In many cases, estimating unknown rates of introduction and spread from observed data requires…
The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitting a spatio-temporal model of how the disease spreads in the structured population. Here we present new generally…
Starting from a mesoscopic description of cell migration and intraspecific interactions we obtain by upscaling an effective reaction-difusion-taxis equation for the cell population density involving spatial nonlocalities in the source term…
Epidemic models play a key role in understanding and responding to the emerging COVID-19 pandemic. Widely used compartmental models are static and are of limited use to evaluate intervention strategies with the emerging pandemic. Applying…
Inferring causal relationships from observed data is an important task, yet it becomes challenging when the data is subject to various external interferences. Most of these interferences are the additional effects of external factors on…
Advances in field techniques have lead to an increase in spatially-referenced capture-recapture data to estimate a species' population size as well as other demographic parameters and patterns of space usage. Statistical models for these…