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It is common in nature to see aggregation of objects in space. Exploring the mechanism associated with the locations of such clustered observations can be essential to understanding the phenomenon, such as the source of spatial…

Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible class of priors for nonparametric Bayesian regression, but popular GP posterior inference methods are typically prohibitively slow or lack desirable finite-data guarantees on quality. We develop an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-28 Jonathan H. Huggins , Trevor Campbell , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Tamara Broderick

Dynamic paired comparison models, such as Elo and Glicko, are frequently used for sports prediction and ranking players or teams. We present an alternative dynamic paired comparison model which uses a Gaussian Process (GP) as a prior for…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-21 Martin Ingram

Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a nonparametric representation of functions. However, classical GP inference suffers from high computational cost and it is difficult to design nonstationary GP priors in practice. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-03-15 Yuan Qi , Bo Dai , Yao Zhu

Sparse Gaussian processes and various extensions thereof are enabled through inducing points, that simultaneously bottleneck the predictive capacity and act as the main contributor towards model complexity. However, the number of inducing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-27 Anders Kirk Uhrenholt , Valentin Charvet , Bjørn Sand Jensen

In applied Bayesian inference scenarios, users may have access to a large number of pre-existing model evaluations, for example from maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) optimization runs. However, traditional approximate inference techniques make…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-24 Chengkun Li , Grégoire Clarté , Martin Jørgensen , Luigi Acerbi

Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-08-12 Jie Chen , Nannan Cao , Kian Hsiang Low , Ruofei Ouyang , Colin Keng-Yan Tan , Patrick Jaillet

Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-05-27 Jie Chen , Nannan Cao , Kian Hsiang Low , Ruofei Ouyang , Colin Keng-Yan Tan , Patrick Jaillet

Scalable Gaussian process (GP) inference is essential for sequential decision-making tasks, yet improving GP scalability remains a challenging problem with many open avenues of research. This paper focuses on iterative GPs, where iterative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Alan Yufei Dong , Jihao Andreas Lin , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

In this paper we propose the first non-parametric Bayesian model using Gaussian Processes to make inference on Poisson Point Processes without resorting to gridding the domain or to introducing latent thinning points. Unlike competing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-30 Yves-Laurent Kom Samo , Stephen Roberts

Let $\mathbf {X}=\{X_t, t=1,2,... \}$ be a stationary Gaussian random process, with mean $EX_t=\mu$ and covariance function $\gamma(\tau)=E(X_t-\mu)(X_{t+\tau}-\mu)$. Let $f(\lambda)$ be the corresponding spectral density; a stationary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-11-07 Judith Rousseau , Brunero Liseo

The future predictive performance of a Bayesian model can be estimated using Bayesian cross-validation. In this article, we consider Gaussian latent variable models where the integration over the latent values is approximated using the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-09 Aki Vehtari , Tommi Mononen , Ville Tolvanen , Tuomas Sivula , Ole Winther

In this paper we provide general conditions to check on the model and the prior to derive posterior concentration rates for data-dependent priors (or empirical Bayes approaches). We aim at providing conditions that are close to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-18 Sophie Donnet , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau , Catia Scricciolo

We introduce a stochastic variational inference procedure for training scalable Gaussian process (GP) models whose per-iteration complexity is independent of both the number of training points, $n$, and the number basis functions used in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-05 Trefor W. Evans , Prasanth B. Nair

In classical Hawkes process, the baseline intensity and triggering kernel are assumed to be a constant and parametric function respectively, which limits the model flexibility. To generalize it, we present a fully Bayesian nonparametric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-30 Feng Zhou , Zhidong Li , Xuhui Fan , Yang Wang , Arcot Sowmya , Fang Chen

This paper introduces a new sparse spatio-temporal structured Gaussian process regression framework for online and offline Bayesian inference. This is the first framework that gives a time-evolving representation of the interdependencies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-01 Danil Kuzin , Olga Isupova , Lyudmila Mihaylova

Additive-interactive regression has recently been shown to offer attractive minimax error rates over traditional nonparametric multivariate regression in a wide variety of settings, including cases where the predictor count is much larger…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-26 Shaan Qamar , Surya T. Tokdar

Fitting a theoretical model to experimental data in a Bayesian manner using Markov chain Monte Carlo typically requires one to evaluate the model thousands (or millions) of times. When the model is a slow-to-compute physics simulation,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-25 Steven Stetzler , Michael Grosskopf , Earl Lawrence

We introduce a novel stochastic variational inference method for Gaussian process ($\mathcal{GP}$) regression, by deriving a posterior over a learnable set of coresets: i.e., over pseudo-input/output, weighted pairs. Unlike former free-form…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-06 Mert Ketenci , Adler Perotte , Noémie Elhadad , Iñigo Urteaga

Some scenarios require the computation of a predictive distribution of a new value evaluated on an objective function conditioned on previous observations. We are interested on using a model that makes valid assumptions on the objective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-21 Lucia Asencio-Martín , Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán