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Modeling the joint distribution of extreme weather events in multiple locations is a challenging task with important applications. In this study, we use max-stable models to study extreme daily precipitation events in Switzerland. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-29 Clément Chevalier , David Ginsbourger , Olivia Martius

Climate models have become an important tool in the study of climate and climate change, and ensemble experiments consisting of multiple climate-model runs are used in studying and quantifying the uncertainty in climate-model output.…

Applications · Statistics 2011-04-15 Stephan R. Sain , Reinhard Furrer , Noel Cressie

Latent space models are powerful statistical tools for modeling and understanding network data. While the importance of accounting for uncertainty in network analysis has been well recognized, the current literature predominantly focuses on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-15 Jinming Li , Shihao Wu , Chengyu Cui , Gongjun Xu , Ji Zhu

In this chapter, we show how to efficiently model high-dimensional extreme peaks-over-threshold events over space in complex non-stationary settings, using extended latent Gaussian Models (LGMs), and how to exploit the fitted model in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-07 Arnab Hazra , Raphaël Huser , Árni V. Jóhannesson

Models with dimension more than the available sample size are now commonly used in various applications. A sensible inference is possible using a lower-dimensional structure. In regression problems with a large number of predictors, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Sayantan Banerjee , Ismaël Castillo , Subhashis Ghosal

We consider a general statistical estimation problem wherein binary labels across different observations are not independent conditioned on their feature vectors, but dependent, capturing settings where e.g. these observations are collected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-22 Yuval Dagan , Constantinos Daskalakis , Nishanth Dikkala , Surbhi Goel , Anthimos Vardis Kandiros

The modelling of multivariate extreme events is important in a wide variety of applications, including flood risk analysis, metocean engineering and financial modelling. A wide variety of statistical techniques have been proposed in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Callum John Rowlandson Murphy-Barltrop , Ed Mackay , Philip Jonathan

Predicting extreme events is important in many applications in risk analysis. The extreme-value theory suggests modelling extremes by max-stable distributions. The Bayesian approach provides a natural framework for statistical prediction.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

Many environmental processes exhibit weakening spatial dependence as events become more extreme. Well-known limiting models, such as max-stable or generalized Pareto processes, cannot capture this, which can lead to a preference for models…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-06 Raphaël G. Huser , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

This paper reviews developments in statistics for spatial point processes obtained within roughly the last decade. These developments include new classes of spatial point process models such as determinantal point processes, models…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-09-06 Jesper Møller , Rasmus Waagepetersen

This paper presents and analyzes an approach to cluster-based inference for dependent data. The primary setting considered here is with spatially indexed data in which the dependence structure of observed random variables is characterized…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-16 Jianfei Cao , Christian Hansen , Damian Kozbur , Lucciano Villacorta

We propose simple inferential approaches for the fixed effects in complex functional mixed effects models. We estimate the fixed effects under the independence of functional residuals assumption and then bootstrap independent units (e.g.…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-06 So Young Park , Ana-Maria Staicu , Luo Xiao , Ciprian Crainiceanu

The behavior of extreme observations is well-understood for time series or spatial data, but little is known if the data generating process is a structural causal model (SCM). We study the behavior of extremes in this model class, both for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Sebastian Engelke , Nicola Gnecco , Frank Röttger

The key to successful statistical analysis of bivariate extreme events lies in flexible modelling of the tail dependence relationship between the two variables. In the extreme value theory literature, various techniques are available to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-05 Emma S. Simpson , Jonathan A. Tawn

Understanding the spatial distribution of animals, during all their life phases, as well as how the distributions are influenced by environmental covariates, is a fundamental requirement for the effective management of animal populations.…

Applications · Statistics 2020-10-26 Soraia Pereira , Raquel Menezes , Maria Manuel Angélico , Tiago Marques

Modelling the extremal dependence of bivariate variables is important in a wide variety of practical applications, including environmental planning, catastrophe modelling and hydrology. The majority of these approaches are based on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-27 C. J. R. Murphy-Barltrop , J. L. Wadsworth , E. F. Eastoe

Multivariate spatially-oriented data sets are prevalent in the environmental and physical sciences. Scientists seek to jointly model multiple variables, each indexed by a spatial location, to capture any underlying spatial association for…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-19 Lu Zhang , Sudipto Banerjee

A recent development in extreme value modeling uses the geometry of the dataset to perform inference on the multivariate tail. A key quantity in this inference is the gauge function, whose values define this geometry. Methodology proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Ryan Campbell , Jennifer Wadsworth

We consider the problem of statistical inference on parameters of a target population when auxiliary observations are available from related populations. We propose a flexible empirical Bayes approach that can be applied on top of any…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-15 Michael Law , Peter Bühlmann , Ya'acov Ritov

Some problems of statistics can be reduced to extremal problems of minimizing functionals of smooth functions defined on the cube $[0,1]^m$, $m\geq 2$. In this paper, we study a class of extremal problems that is closely connected to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-12-06 Alexander Nazarov , Natalia Stepanova