Related papers: Kernel Density Estimation-Based Markov Models with…

Hidden Markov models and their variants are the predominant sequential classification method in such domains as speech recognition, bioinformatics and natural language processing. Being generative rather than discriminative models, however,…

Traditional hidden Markov models have been a useful tool to understand and model stochastic dynamic data; in the case of non-Gaussian data, models such as mixture of Gaussian hidden Markov models can be used. However, these suffer from the…

We propose DenseHMM - a modification of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) that allows to learn dense representations of both the hidden states and the observables. Compared to the standard HMM, transition probabilities are not atomic but composed…

We introduce the Reduced-Rank Hidden Markov Model (RR-HMM), a generalization of HMMs that can model smooth state evolution as in Linear Dynamical Systems (LDSs) as well as non-log-concave predictive distributions as in…

Markov state models (MSMs) have been successful in computing metastable states, slow relaxation timescales and associated structural changes, and stationary or kinetic experimental observables of complex molecules from large amounts of…

The formalism of state estimation and hidden Markov models (HMMs) can simplify and clarify the discussion of stochastic thermodynamics in the presence of feedback and measurement errors. After reviewing the basic formalism, we use it to…

Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) are latent variable models which allow latent state persistence and can be viewed as a generalization of the popular hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this paper, we introduce a novel spectral algorithm to…

Stochastic processes are random variables with values in some space of paths. However, reducing a stochastic process to a path-valued random variable ignores its filtration, i.e. the flow of information carried by the process through time.…

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in using spectral methods for estimating latent variable models. However, it is usually assumed that the distribution of the observations conditioned on the latent variables is either discrete or…

Hidden Markov Models, HMM's, are mathematical models of Markov processes with state that is hidden, but from which information can leak. They are typically represented as 3-way joint-probability distributions. We use HMM's as denotations of…

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the traditional HMM. However, in many settings the HDP-HMM's strict Markovian constraints are…

Kernel density estimation (KDE) is one of the most widely used nonparametric density estimation methods. The fact that it is a memory-based method, i.e., it uses the entire training data set for prediction, makes it unsuitable for most…

We introduce a new nonparametric density estimator inspired by Markov Chains, and generalizing the well-known Kernel Density Estimator (KDE). Our estimator presents several benefits with respect to the usual ones and can be used…

We address the problem of analyzing sets of noisy time-varying signals that all report on the same process but confound straightforward analyses due to complex inter-signal heterogeneities and measurement artifacts. In particular we…

The impact of randomness on model training is poorly understood. How do differences in data order and initialization actually manifest in the model, such that some training runs outperform others or converge faster? Furthermore, how can we…

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…

The hidden Markov model (HMM) provides a powerful framework for inference in time-varying environments, where the underlying state evolves according to a Markov chain. To address the optimal filtering problem in general dynamic settings, we…

We are interested in assessing the order of a finite-state Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with the only two assumptions that the transition matrix of the latent Markov chain has full rank and that the density functions of the emission…

Likelihood-free inference methods based on neural conditional density estimation were shown to drastically reduce the simulation burden in comparison to classical methods such as ABC. When applied in the context of any latent variable…

This work attempts to approximate a linear Gaussian system with a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM), which is found useful in solving sophisticated event-based state estimation problems. An indirect modeling approach is developed,…