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This paper presents a new deterministic approximation technique in Bayesian networks. This method, "Expectation Propagation", unifies two previous techniques: assumed-density filtering, an extension of the Kalman filter, and loopy belief…

Due to the intractable nature of exact lifted inference, research has recently focused on the discovery of accurate and efficient approximate inference algorithms in Statistical Relational Models (SRMs), such as Lifted First-Order Belief…

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are a principled planning model for sequential decision-making under uncertainty. Yet, real-world problems with high-dimensional observations, such as camera images, remain intractable…

Motivation: In the last few years a growing interest in biology has been shifting towards the problem of optimal information extraction from the huge amount of data generated via large scale and high-throughput techniques. One of the most…

Gaussian mixture models form a flexible and expressive parametric family of distributions that has found applications in a wide variety of applications. Unfortunately, fitting these models to data is a notoriously hard problem from a…

The sigma point (SP) filter, also known as unscented Kalman filter, is an attractive alternative to the extended Kalman filter and the particle filter. Here, we extend the SP filter to nonsequential Bayesian inference corresponding to loopy…

Understanding which concepts models can and cannot represent has been fundamental to many tasks: from effective and responsible use of models to detecting out of distribution data. We introduce Gaussian process probes (GPP), a unified and…

Label imbalance and homophily-heterophily mixture are the fundamental problems encountered when applying Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to Graph Fraud Detection (GFD) tasks. Existing GNN-based GFD models are designed to augment graph…

Nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation is intended to infer the unknown density distribution while making as few assumptions as possible. To alleviate the over parameterization in nonparametric data fitting, smoothing assumptions are…

We present an R package bssm for Bayesian non-linear/non-Gaussian state space modelling. Unlike the existing packages, bssm allows for easy-to-use approximate inference based on Gaussian approximations such as the Laplace approximation and…

The belief propagation (BP) algorithm is widely applied to perform approximate inference on arbitrary graphical models, in part due to its excellent empirical properties and performance. However, little is known theoretically about when…

Belief Propagation (BP) is one of the most popular methods for inference in probabilistic graphical models. BP is guaranteed to return the correct answer for tree structures, but can be incorrect or non-convergent for loopy graphical…

Situation-aware technologies enabled by multiobject tracking (MOT) methods will create new services and applications in fields such as autonomous navigation and applied ocean sciences. Belief propagation (BP) is a state-of-the-art method…

In a recent article (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 110(36), 14557-14562), El Karoui et al. study the distribution of robust regression estimators in the regime in which the number of parameters p is of the same order as the number of samples n.…

We apply belief propagation (BP) to multi--user detection in a spread spectrum system, under the assumption of Gaussian symbols. We prove that BP is both convergent and allows to estimate the correct conditional expectation of the input…

In this letter, we present a novel Gaussian Process Learning-based Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow (GP-POPF) for solving POPF under renewable and load uncertainties of arbitrary distribution. The proposed method relies on a non-parametric…

Mixture models are regularly used in density estimation applications, but the problem of estimating the mixing distribution remains a challenge. Nonparametric maximum likelihood produce estimates of the mixing distribution that are…

Bayesian methods are a popular choice for statistical inference in small-data regimes due to the regularization effect induced by the prior. In the context of density estimation, the standard nonparametric Bayesian approach is to target the…

Compiling Bayesian networks (BNs) to junction trees and performing belief propagation over them is among the most prominent approaches to computing posteriors in BNs. However, belief propagation over junction tree is known to be…

The belief propagation (BP) algorithm is an efficient way to solve "inference" problems in graphical models, such as Bayesian networks and Markov random fields. The system-state probability distribution of CSMA wireless networks is a Markov…