Related papers: Dynamic Contagion in a Banking System with Births …
The purpose of the present paper is to introduce and establish a notion of stability for the backward propagation of chaos with respect to (initial) data sets. Consider, for example, a sequence of discrete-time martingales converging to a…
Social contagion has been studied in various contexts. Many instances of social contagion can be modeled as an infection process where a specific state (adoption of product, fad, knowledge, behavior, etc.) spreads from individual to…
We consider the dynamics of a 1D system evolving according to a deterministic drift and randomly forced by two types of jumps processes, one representing an external, uncontrolled forcing and the other one a control that instantaneously…
We develop a stochastic macro-financial model in continuous time by integrating two specifications of the Keen economic framework with a financial market driven by a jump-diffusion process. The economic block of the model combines monetary…
In this paper we study the evolution of asset price bubbles driven by contagion effects spreading among investors via a random matching mechanism in a discrete-time version of the liquidity based model of [25]. To this scope, we extend the…
We study the causes and consequences of bank runs using a novel dataset of bank runs in the United States from 1863 to 1934. Applying large language models to historical newspapers, we identify 3,421 runs on individual banks. The resulting…
We consider a large collection of dynamically interacting components defined on a weighted directed graph determining the impact of default of one component to another one. We prove a law of large numbers for the empirical measure capturing…
This chapter reviews key contributions of complexity science to the study of systemic risk in financial systems. The focus is on network models of financial contagion, where I explore various mechanisms of shock propagation, such as…
Sustaining efficiency and stability by properly controlling the equity to asset ratio is one of the most important and difficult challenges in bank management. Due to unexpected and abrupt decline of asset values, a bank must closely…
This paper focus on investigating the explicit rate of convergence for the propagation of chaos, in a pathwise sense a family of interacting stochastic particle related to some Brownian driven McKean-Vlasov dynamics. Precisely the McKean…
As economic entities become increasingly interconnected, a shock in a financial network can provoke significant cascading failures throughout the system. To study the systemic risk of financial systems, we create a bi-partite banking…
The instability of the financial system as experienced in recent years and in previous periods is often linked to credit defaults, i.e., to the failure of obligors to make promised payments. Given the large number of credit contracts, this…
We consider a system of $N$ particles interacting through their empirical distribution on a finite state space in continuous time. In the formal limit as $N\to\infty$, the system takes the form of a nonlinear (McKean--Vlasov) Markov chain.…
In this paper, we propose a method that provides a useful technique to compare relationship between risks involved that takes customer become defaulter and debt collection process that might make this defaulter recovered. Through estimation…
We study an open problem of risk-sensitive portfolio allocation in a regime-switching credit market with default contagion. The state space of the Markovian regime-switching process is assumed to be a countably infinite set. To characterize…
Random metastability occurs when an externally forced or noisy system possesses more than one state of apparent equilibrium. This work investigates fluctuations in a class of random dynamical systems, arising from randomly perturbing a…
We study a stochastic spatial epidemic model where the $N$ individuals carry two features: a position and an infection state, interact and move in $\R^d$. In this Markovian model, the evolution of the infection states are described with the…
We develop an approach for two player constraint zero-sum and nonzero-sum stochastic differential games, which are modeled by Markov regime-switching jump-diffusion processes. We provide the relations between a usual stochastic optimal…
In a series of precedent papers, we have presented a comprehensive methodology, termed Field Economics, for translating a standard economic model into a statistical field-formalism framework. This formalism requires a large number of…
The processes of interplant competition within a field are still poorly understood. However, they explain a large part of the heterogeneity in a field and may have longer-term consequences, especially in mixed stands. Modeling can help to…