Related papers: A practical example for the non-linear Bayesian fi…
Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal models (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or…
We propose a novel method for maximum likelihood-based parameter inference in nonlinear and/or non-Gaussian state space models. The method is an iterative procedure with three steps. At each iteration a particle filter is used to estimate…
Nonstationary time series data exist in various scientific disciplines, including environmental science, biology, signal processing, econometrics, among others. Many Bayesian models have been developed to handle nonstationary time series.…
We propose a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter learning when the studied model exhibits random discontinuous jumps in behaviour. To facilitate the learning of high dimensional parameter sets, such as those associated to neural…
We consider Bayesian analysis of a class of multiple changepoint models. While there are a variety of efficient ways to analyse these models if the parameters associated with each segment are independent, there are few general approaches…
We present an importance sampling algorithm that can produce realisations of Markovian epidemic models that exactly match observations, taken to be the number of a single event type over a period of time. The importance sampling can be used…
Some challenging problems in tracking multiple objects include the time-dependent cardinality, unordered measurements and object parameter labeling. In this paper, we employ Bayesian Bayesian nonparametric methods to address these…
Simulation models of critical systems often have parameters that need to be calibrated using observed data. For expensive simulation models, calibration is done using an emulator of the simulation model built on simulation output at…
The aim of this paper is to provide a variational interpretation of the nonlinear filter in continuous time. A time-stepping procedure is introduced, consisting of successive minimization problems in the space of probability densities. The…
Bayesian model selection provides a powerful and mathematically transparent framework to tackle hypothesis testing, such as detection tests of gravitational waves emitted during the coalescence of binary systems using ground-based laser…
We introduce a new sequential methodology to calibrate the fixed parameters and track the stochastic dynamical variables of a state-space system. The proposed method is based on the nested hybrid filtering (NHF) framework of [1], that…
We discuss a general Bayesian framework on modeling multidimensional function-valued processes by using a Gaussian process or a heavy-tailed process as a prior, enabling us to handle nonseparable and/or nonstationary covariance structure.…
Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. In many applications it may be necessary to compute the sensitivity,…
"Particle methods" are sequential Monte Carlo algorithms, typically involving importance sampling, that are used to estimate and sample from joint and marginal densities from a collection of a, presumably increasing, number of random…
Fitting statistical models to spatiotemporal data requires finding the right balance between imposing smoothness and following the data. In the context of p-splines, we propose a Bayesian framework for choosing the smoothing parameter which…
This paper discusses variance estimation in sequential Monte Carlo methods, alternatively termed particle filters. The variance estimator that we propose is a natural modification of that suggested by H. P. Chan and T. L. Lai [A general…
The class of $\alpha$-stable distributions enjoys multiple practical applications in signal processing, finance, biology and other areas because it allows to describe interesting and complex data patterns, such as asymmetry or heavy tails,…
In this article, using kernel convolution of order based dependent Dirichlet process (Griffin and Steel (2006)) we construct a nonstationary, nonseparable, nonparametric space-time process, which, as we show, satisfies desirable properties,…
This paper presents an algorithm for computing the GIC and the TIC of the nonstationary state-space models. The gradient and Hessian of the log-likelihood neccesary in computing the GIC are obtained by the differential filter that is…
Nonlinear/non-Gaussian filtering has broad applications in many areas of life sciences where either the dynamic is nonlinear and/or the probability density function of uncertain state is non-Gaussian. In such problems, the accuracy of the…