Related papers: Score Permutation Based Finite Sample Inference fo…
This letter studies a distribution-free, finite-sample data perturbation (DP) method, the Residual-Permuted Sums (RPS), which is an alternative of the Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS) algorithm, to construct confidence regions. While SPS assumes…
Generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) processes are widely used for modelling features commonly found in observed financial returns. The extremal properties of these processes are of considerable interest for…
This paper proposes a spatial threshold GARCH-type model for dynamic spatio-temporal integer-valued data with network structure. The proposed model can simplify the parameterization by using network structure in data, and can capture the…
In this paper, we address \ac{SGNEP} seeking with risk-neutral agents. Our main contribution lies the development of a stochastic variance-reduced gradient (SVRG) technique, modified to contend with general sample spaces, within a…
We establish global well-posedness and convergence of the score-based generative models (SGM) under minimal general assumptions of initial data for score estimation. For the smooth case, we start from a Lipschitz bound of the score function…
Through an uncertainty quantification (UQ) perspective, we show that score-based generative models (SGMs) are provably robust to the multiple sources of error in practical implementation. Our primary tool is the Wasserstein uncertainty…
Gaussian process regression is a powerful Bayesian nonlinear regression method. Recent research has enabled the capture of many types of observations using non-Gaussian likelihoods. To deal with various tasks in spatial modeling, we benefit…
This paper presents the open-source stochastic model predictive control framework GRAMPC-S for nonlinear uncertain systems with chance constraints. It provides several uncertainty propagation methods to predict stochastic moments of the…
The multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) approach of Friedman (1991) and its Bayesian counterpart (Francom et al. 2018) are effective approaches for the emulation of computer models. The traditional assumption of Gaussian errors…
We propose methods to improve the forecasts from generalized autoregressive score (GAS) models (Creal et. al, 2013; Harvey, 2013) by localizing their parameters using decision trees and random forests. These methods avoid the curse of…
Bayesian inference for fractionally integrated exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (FIEGARCH) models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is described. A simulation study is presented to access the…
It is now widely accepted that, to model the dynamics of daily financial returns, volatility models have to incorporate the so-called leverage effect. We derive the asymptotic behaviour of the squared residuals autocovariances for the class…
Intractable generative models are models for which the likelihood is unavailable but sampling is possible. Most approaches to parameter inference in this setting require the computation of some discrepancy between the data and the…
We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…
This paper develops a Bayesian framework for the realized exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (realized EGARCH) model, which can incorporate multiple realized volatility measures for the modelling of a…
Conditional density estimation is complicated by multimodality, heteroscedasticity, and strong non-Gaussianity. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a principled nonparametric framework with calibrated uncertainty, but standard GP regression is…
This paper advances the local projections (LP) method by addressing its inefficiency in high-frequency economic and financial data with volatility clustering. We incorporate a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity…
The concept of a random process has been recently extended to graph signals, whereby random graph processes are a class of multivariate stochastic processes whose coefficients are matrices with a \textit{graph-topological} structure. The…
Seismic data restoration is a fundamental task in seismic exploration, yet remains challenging under complex and unknown degradations. Traditional model-driven or task-specific learning methods often require retraining for each degradation…
Generalized linear mixed models are useful in studying hierarchical data with possibly non-Gaussian responses. However, the intractability of likelihood functions poses challenges for estimation. We develop a new method suitable for this…