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For oceanographic applications, probabilistic forecasts typically have to deal with i) high-dimensional complex models, and ii) very sparse spatial observations. In search-and-rescue operations at sea, for instance, the short-term…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-15 Florian Beiser , Håvard Heitlo Holm , Jo Eidsvik

This paper studies whether numerically preserving monotonic properties can offer modelling advantages in data assimilation, particularly when the signal or data is a realization of a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) or…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-02-19 James Woodfield

In recent years, machine learning (ML) has been proposed to devise data-driven parametrisations of unresolved processes in dynamical numerical models. In most cases, the ML training leverages high-resolution simulations to provide a dense,…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-12-09 Julien Brajard , Alberto Carrassi , Marc Bocquet , Laurent Bertino

To analyse a very large data set containing lengthy variables, we adopt a sequential estimation idea and propose a parallel divide-and-conquer method. We conduct several conventional sequential estimation procedures separately, and properly…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-27 Zhanfeng Wang , Yuan-chin Ivan Chang

Understanding time-dependent blood flow dynamics in arteries is crucial for diagnosing and treating cardiovascular diseases. However, accurately predicting time-varying flow patterns requires integrating observational data with…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-01-09 Muhammad Adnan Anwar , Jorge Tiago

Nudging is a data assimilation method amenable to both analysis and implementation. It also has the (reported) advantage of being insensitive to model errors compared to other assimilation methods. However, nudging behavior in the presence…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-24 Aytekin Çibik , Rui Fang , William Layton , Farjana Siddiqua

This article develops a general framework for continuous deterministic data assimilation for semilinear parabolic equations by means of evolution equations. Introducing a nudged model driven by partial observations, the global…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2026-02-25 Gianmarco Del Sarto , Matthias Hieber , Filippo Palma , Tarek Zöchling

Finite population inference is a central goal in survey sampling. Probability sampling is the main statistical approach to finite population inference. Challenges arise due to high cost and increasing non-response rates. Data integration…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-13 Shu Yang , Jae Kwang Kim

We describe a new approach allowing for systematic causal attribution of weather and climate-related events, in near-real time. The method is purposely designed to facilitate its implementation at meteorological centers by relying on data…

Data assimilation is the task to combine evolution models and observational data in order to produce reliable predictions. In this paper, we focus on ensemble-based recursive data assimilation problems. Our main contribution is a hybrid…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-02-26 Nawinda Chustagulprom , Sebastian Reich , Maria Reinhardt

We present a particle filtering algorithm for stochastic models on infinite dimensional state space, making use of Girsanov perturbations to nudge the ensemble of particles into regions of higher likelihood. We argue that the optimal…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-07-24 Maneesh Kumar Singh , Joshua Hope-Collins , Colin J. Cotter , Dan Crisan

Standard methods of data assimilation assume prior knowledge of a model that describes the system dynamics and an observation function that maps the model state to a predicted output. An accurate mapping from model state to observation…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-05-22 Franz Hamilton , Tyrus Berry , Timothy Sauer

Big data is ubiquitous in practices, and it has also led to heavy computation burden. To reduce the calculation cost and ensure the effectiveness of parameter estimators, an optimal subset sampling method is proposed to estimate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-16 Haohui Han , Liya Fu

We present a new continuous data assimilation algorithm based on ideas that have been developed for designing finite-dimensional feedback controls for dissipative dynamical systems, in particular, in the context of the incompressible…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2015-06-15 Abderrahim Azouani , Eric Olson , Edriss S. Titi

Data assimilation combines forecasts from a numerical model with observations. Most of the current data assimilation algorithms consider the model and observation error terms as additive Gaussian noise, specified by their covariance…

A framework for data assimilation combining aspects of operator-theoretic ergodic theory and quantum mechanics is developed. This framework adapts the Dirac--von Neumann formalism of quantum dynamics and measurement to perform sequential…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2019-09-18 Dimitrios Giannakis

In using data assimilation to import information from observations to estimate parameters and state variables of a model, one must assume a distribution for the noise in the measurements and in the model errors. Using the path integral…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2010-12-10 Henry D. I. Abarbanel

In this brief paper, we present a naive aggregation algorithm for a typical learning problem with expert advice setting, in which the task of improving generalization, i.e., model validation, is embedded in the learning process as a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-09 Getachew K Befekadu

Data Assimilation is a cornerstone of atmospheric system modeling, tasked with reconstructing system states by integrating sparse, noisy observations with prior estimation. While traditional approaches like variational and ensemble Kalman…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Hao Wang , Zixuan Weng , Jindong Han , Wei Fan , Hao Liu

In this computational paper, we perform sensitivity analysis of long-time (or ensemble) averages in the chaotic regime using the shadowing algorithm. We introduce automatic differentiation to eliminate the tangent/adjoint equation solvers…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-11-18 Nisha Chandramoorthy , Luca Magri , Qiqi Wang
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