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Constructing approximations that can accurately mimic the behavior of complex models at reduced computational costs is an important aspect of uncertainty quantification. Despite their flexibility and efficiency, classical surrogate models…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-29 S. Marelli , P. -R. Wagner , C. Lataniotis , B. Sudret

We explore a hybrid technique to quantify the variability in the numerical solutions to a free boundary problem associated with magnetic equilibrium in axisymmetric fusion reactors amidst parameter uncertainties. The method aims at reducing…

Computational Physics · Physics 2026-03-03 Howard Elman , Jiaxing Liang , Tonatiuh Sánchez-Vizuet

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-08 Ruanui Nicholson , Radoslav Vuchkov , Umberto Villa , Noemi Petra

Surrogate models are used to alleviate the computational burden in engineering tasks, which require the repeated evaluation of computationally demanding models of physical systems, such as the efficient propagation of uncertainties. For…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-28 Felix Schneider , Iason Papaioannou , Gerhard Müller

Surrogate models based on machine learning methods have become an important part of modern engineering to replace costly computer simulations. The data used for creating a surrogate model are essential for the model accuracy and often…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-03 Sven Lämmle , Can Bogoclu , Kevin Cremanns , Dirk Roos

In a task where many similar inverse problems must be solved, evaluating costly simulations is impractical. Therefore, replacing the model $y$ with a surrogate model $y_s$ that can be evaluated quickly leads to a significant speedup. The…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-05-15 Phillip Semler , Martin Weiser

We propose a novel \textit{capsule} based deep encoder-decoder model for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification of systems in mechanics from sparse data. The proposed framework is developed by adapting Capsule Network (CapsNet)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-20 Akshay Thakur , Souvik Chakraborty

This paper describes novel algorithms for the identification of (almost-)resonant behavior in scattering problems. Our methods, relying on rational approximation, aim at building surrogate models of what we call "field amplification",…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Davide Pradovera , Ralf Hiptmair , Ilaria Perugia

Bayesian inverse modeling is important for a better understanding of hydrological processes. However, this approach can be computationally demanding, as it usually requires a large number of model evaluations. To address this issue, one can…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-24 Jiangjiang Zhang , Qiang Zheng , Dingjiang Chen , Laosheng Wu , Lingzao Zeng

The quantification of uncertainties of computer simulations due to input parameter uncertainties is paramount to assess a model's credibility. For computationally expensive simulations, this is often feasible only via surrogate models that…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-30 Sascha Ranftl , Wolfgang von der Linden

We consider computationally expensive blackbox optimization problems and present a method that employs surrogate models and concurrent computing at the search step of the mesh adaptive direct search (MADS) algorithm. Specifically, we solve…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-28 Bastien Talgorn , Stéphane Alarie , Michael Kokkolaras

Recently, a surrogate model was proposed that employs a factorization machine to approximate the underlying input-output mapping of the original system, with quantum annealing used to optimize the resulting surrogate function. Inspired by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Anbang Wang , Dunbo Cai , Yu Zhang , Yangqing Huang , Xiangyang Feng , Zhihong Zhang

Recently, electromagnetic surrogate solvers, trained on solutions of Maxwell's equations under specific simulation conditions, enabled fast inference of computationally expensive simulations. However, conventional electromagnetic surrogate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-18 Joonhyuk Seo , Chanik Kang , Dongjin Seo , Haejun Chung

The polynomial chaos (PC) expansion has been widely used as a surrogate model in the Bayesian inference to speed up the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) calculations. However, the use of a PC surrogate introduces the modeling error, that may…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-02-20 Liang Yan , Tao Zhou

Surrogate modeling of eccentric binary black hole waveforms has remained challenging. The complicated morphology of these waveforms due to the eccentric orbital timescale variations makes it difficult to construct accurate and efficient…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-10-03 Akash Maurya , Prayush Kumar , Scott E. Field , Chandra Kant Mishra , Peter James Nee , Kaushik Paul , Harald P. Pfeiffer , Adhrit Ravichandran , Vijay Varma

Surrogate models, crucial for approximating complex simulation data across sciences, inherently carry uncertainties that range from simulation noise to model prediction errors. Without rigorous uncertainty quantification, predictions become…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-07 Yuhan Duan , Xin Zhao , Neng Shi , Han-Wei Shen

Machine learning methods are increasingly used to build computationally inexpensive surrogates for complex physical models. The predictive capability of these surrogates suffers when data are noisy, sparse, or time-dependent. As we are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-20 A. Diaw , M. McKerns , I. Sagert , L. G. Stanton , M. S. Murillo

Machine learning surrogates are increasingly employed to replace expensive computational models for physics-based reliability analysis. However, their use introduces epistemic uncertainty from model approximation errors, which couples with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Amirreza Tootchi , Xiaoping Du

The effect of uncertainties and noise on a quantity of interest (model output) is often better described by its probability density function (PDF) than by its moments. Although density estimation is a common task, the adequacy of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-06-21 Adi Ditkowski , Gadi Fibich , Amir Sagiv

Decision-making in manufacturing often involves optimizing key process parameters using data collected from simulation experiments. Gaussian processes are widely used to surrogate the underlying system and guide optimization. Uncertainty…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-30 Yezhuo Li , Qiong Zhang , Madhura Limaye , Gang Li