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The spatio-temporal relations of impacts of extreme events and their drivers in climate data are not fully understood and there is a need of machine learning approaches to identify such spatio-temporal relations from data. The task,…
Data augmentation improves the convergence of iterative algorithms, such as the EM algorithm and Gibbs sampler by introducing carefully designed latent variables. In this article, we first propose a data augmentation scheme for the…
Variational inference has had great success in scaling approximate Bayesian inference to big data by exploiting mini-batch training. To date, however, this strategy has been most applicable to models of independent data. We propose an…
Multiplicative error models (MEMs) are commonly used for real-valued time series, but they cannot be applied to discrete-valued count time series as the involved multiplication would not preserve the integer nature of the data. Thus, the…
Large, non-Gaussian spatial datasets pose a considerable modeling challenge as the dependence structure implied by the model needs to be captured at different scales, while retaining feasible inference. Skew-normal and skew-t distributions…
We deal with Bayesian inference for Beta autoregressive processes. We restrict our attention to the class of conditionally linear processes. These processes are particularly suitable for forecasting purposes, but are difficult to estimate…
Two non-intrusive uncertainty propagation approaches are proposed for the performance analysis of engineering systems described by expensive-to-evaluate deterministic computer models with parameters defined as interval variables. These…
Conditional heteroscedastic (CH) models are routinely used to analyze financial datasets. The classical models such as ARCH-GARCH with time-invariant coefficients are often inadequate to describe frequent changes over time due to market…
We propose a parsimonious spatiotemporal model for time series data on a spatial grid. Our model is capable of dealing with high-dimensional time series data that may be collected at hundreds of locations and capturing the spatial…
The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is widely used for analyzing correlated data, particularly in large-scale biomedical and social science applications. Scalable Bayesian inference for GLMMs is challenging because the marginal…
We discuss the Gaussian graphical model (GGM; an undirected network of partial correlation coefficients) and detail its utility as an exploratory data analysis tool. The GGM shows which variables predict one-another, allows for sparse…
We present an estimation procedure of spatial and temporal effects in spatiotemporal autoregressive panel data models using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator, LASSO (Tibshirani, 1996). We assume that the spatiotemporal…
We tackle the problem of multiscale regression for predictors that are spatially or temporally indexed, or with a pre-specified multiscale structure, with a Bayesian modular approach. The regression function at the finest scale is expressed…
Classical field forecast evaluation relies mainly on local scores such as RMSE or MAE. These metrics severely over-penalize small spatial or temporal displacements of coherent structures, a limitation known as the double-penalty issue and…
In this paper we propose a generalization of a class of Gaussian Semiparametric Estimators (GSE) of the fractional differencing parameter for long-range dependent multivariate time series. We generalize a known GSE-type estimator by…
We consider the analysis of continuous repeated measurement outcomes that are collected through time, also known as longitudinal data. A standard framework for analysing data of this kind is a linear Gaussian mixed-effects model within…
Interval-valued data receives much attention due to its wide applications in the fields of finance, econometrics, meteorology and medicine. However, most regression models developed for interval-valued data assume observations are mutually…
Spatial concurrent linear models, in which the model coefficients are spatial processes varying at a local level, are flexible and useful tools for analyzing spatial data. One approach places stationary Gaussian process priors on the…
Non-gaussian spatial data are very common in many disciplines. For instance, count data are common in disease mapping, and binary data are common in ecology. When fitting spatial regressions for such data, one needs to account for…
We propose a semi-partitioned Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) framework for analyzing longitudinal data with time-dependent covariates, within a marginal modeling paradigm. This approach addresses limitations of both aggregated and…