English
Related papers

Related papers: Testing and Improving a Set of Morphological Predi…

200 papers

Solar flares are a primary driver of space weather, and forecasting their occurrence remains a significant challenge. This paper presents a novel flare prediction model based on topologically derived photospheric magnetic parameters. We…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-12-18 Thomas Williams , Christopher B. Prior , David MacTaggart , D. Shaun Bloomfield

Recently, there has been growing interest in the use of machine-learning methods for predicting solar flares. Initial efforts along these lines employed comparatively simple models, correlating features extracted from observations of…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-06-21 Varad Deshmukh , Srinivas Baskar , Elizabeth Bradley , Thomas Berger , James D. Meiss

The effect of using two representations of the normal-to-surface magnetic field to calculate photospheric measures that are related to active region (AR) potential for flaring is presented. Several AR properties were computed using…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-01-24 Jordan A. Guerra , Sung-H. Park , Ioannis Kontogiannis , Peter T. Gallagher , Manolis Georgoulis , D. Shaun Bloomfield

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are among the most energetic events in the solar system, impacting the near-Earth environment. Flare productivity is empirically known to be correlated with the size and complexity of active…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-06-16 Chloé Guennou , Etienne Pariat , Nicole Vilmer , James E. Leake

We explore the association of non-neutralized currents with solar flare occurrence in a sizable sample of observations, aiming to show the potential of such currents in solar flare prediction. We use the regularly produced high quality…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-11-01 Ioannis Kontogiannis , Manolis K. Georgoulis , Sung-Hong Park , Jordan A. Guerra

Solar eruptive events, like flares and coronal mass ejections, are characterized by the rapid release of energy that can give rise to emission of radiation across the entire electromagnetic spectrum and to an abrupt significant increase in…

Solar flares are caused by magnetic eruptions in active regions (ARs) on the surface of the sun. These events can have significant impacts on human activity, many of which can be mitigated with enough advance warning from good forecasts. To…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-09-18 Varad Deshmukh , Thomas Berger , James Meiss , Elizabeth Bradley

Solar flare forecasting can be realized by means of the analysis of magnetic data through artificial intelligence techniques. The aim is to predict whether a magnetic active region (AR) will originate solar flares above a certain class…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-06-29 Sabrina Guastavino , Francesco Marchetti , Federico Benvenuto , Cristina Campi , Michele Piana

We attempt to forecast M-and X-class solar flares using a machine-learning algorithm, called Support Vector Machine (SVM), and four years of data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory's Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, the first instrument…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-01-09 Monica G. Bobra , Sebastien Couvidat

Multiple recent investigations of solar magnetic field measurements have raised claims that the scale-free (fractal) or multiscale (multifractal) parameters inferred from the studied magnetograms may help assess the eruptive potential of…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-20 Manolis K. Georgoulis

We describe here the application of a machine learning method for flare forecasting using vectors of properties extracted from images provided by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager in the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI). We also…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-07-17 Michele Piana , Cristina Campi , Federico Benvenuto , Sabrina Guastavano , Anna Maria Massone

We present several methods towards construction of precursors, which show great promise towards early predictions, of solar flare events in this paper. A data pre-processing pipeline is built to extract useful data from multiple sources,…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-01-08 Yang Chen , Ward B. Manchester , Alfred O. Hero , Gabor Toth , Benoit DuFumier , Tian Zhou , Xiantong Wang , Haonan Zhu , Zeyu Sun , Tamas I. Gombosi

Solar flare forecasting mainly relies on photospheric magnetograms and associated physical features to predict forthcoming flares. However, it is believed that flare initiation mechanisms often originate in the chromosphere and the lower…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-10-22 Grégoire Francisco , Sabrina Guastavino , Teresa Barata , João Fernandes , Dario Del Moro

Adverse space weather effects can often be traced to solar flares, prediction of which has drawn significant research interests. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) produces full-disk vector magnetograms with continuous high cadence,…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-07-26 Chang Liu , Na Deng , Jason T. L. Wang , Haimin Wang

A magnetic power spectral analysis is performed on 53 solar active regions, observed from August 2011 to July 2012. Magnetic field data obtained from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, inverted as Active Region Patches, are used to study…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2016-12-28 Revati S. Mandage , R. T. James McAteer

Solar flares are intense bursts of electromagnetic radiation, which occur due to a rapid destabilization and reconnection of the magnetic field. While pre-flare signatures and trends have been investigated from magnetic observations prior…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-06-18 Kara L. Kniezewski , Emily I. Mason , Daniel J. Emmons , Kyle E. Fitch , Seth H. Garland

Solar flares produce radiation which can have an almost immediate effect on the near-Earth environment, making it crucial to forecast flares in order to mitigate their negative effects. The number of published approaches to flare…

A statistical study is carried out on the photospheric magnetic nonpotentiality in solar active regions and its relationship with associated flares. We select 2173 photospheric vector magnetograms from 1106 active regions observed by the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2012-08-10 Xiao Yang , HongQi Zhang , Yu Gao , Juan Guo , GangHua Lin

One of the main goals of solar physics is the timely identification of eruptive active regions. Space missions such as Solar Orbiter or future Space Weather forecasting missions would largely benefit from this achievement. Our aim is to…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-01-08 P. Pagano , D. H. Mackay , S. L. Yardley

In this paper, we consider incorporating data associated with the sun's north and south polar field strengths to improve solar flare prediction performance using machine learning models. When used to supplement local data from active…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-12-06 Mehmet Aktukmak , Zeyu Sun , Monica Bobra , Tamas Gombosi , Ward B. Manchester , Yang Chen , Alfred Hero