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This paper presents a comprehensive risk assessment model for power distribution networks with a focus on the influence of climate conditions and vegetation management on outage risks. Using a dataset comprising outage records,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-13 Di Zhao , Umar Salman , Zongjie Wang

This paper presents a data-driven approach for quantifying the resilience of distribution power grids to extreme weather events using two key metrics: (a) the number of outages and (b) restoration time. The method leverages historical…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-19 Dingwei Wang , Salish Maharjan , Junyuan Zheng , Liming Liu , Zhaoyu Wang

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-05 Xuesong Wang , Nina Fatehi , Caisheng Wang , Masoud H. Nazari

Natural disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, and winter storms have induced large-scale power outages in the U.S., resulting in tremendous economic and societal impacts. Accurately predicting power outage recovery and impact is key to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Chenghao Duan , Chuanyi Ji

Power outages caused by extreme weather events due to climate change have doubled in the United States in the last two decades. Outages pose severe health risks to over 4.4 million individuals dependent on in-home medical devices. Data on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-16 Paraskevi Kourtza , Maitreyee Marathe , Anuj Shetty , Diego Kiedanski

Climate-driven power outages pose a growing threat to U.S. grid reliability, yet empirical outage studies and interdependency-based resilience analyses are rarely integrated. This paper presents a data-driven framework that integrates…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-19 Yoneke Graham , Gelila Webster , Tina Tran , Sohini Roy

This paper addresses the problem of predicting duration of unplanned power outages, using historical outage records to train a series of neural network predictors. The initial duration prediction is made based on environmental factors, and…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-07-31 Aaron Jaech , Baosen Zhang , Mari Ostendorf , Daniel S. Kirschen

In recent years, increasingly unpredictable and severe global weather patterns have frequently caused long-lasting power outages. Building resilience, the ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from major disruptions, has become…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-27 Hanyang Jiang , Yao Xie , Feng Qiu

This paper presents a novel learning based framework for predicting power outages caused by extreme events. The proposed approach targets low-probability high-consequence outage scenarios and leverages a comprehensive set of features…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Nina Fatehi , Antar Kumar Biswas , Masoud H. Nazari

The size distributions of power outages are shown to depend on the stress, or the proximity of the load of an electrical grid to complete breakdown. Using the data for the U.S. between 2002-2017, we show that the outage statistics are…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-02-12 Soumyajyoti Biswas , Lucas Goehring

An outage detection framework for power distribution networks is proposed. Given the tree structure of the distribution system, a method is developed combining the use of real-time power flow measurements on edges of the tree with load…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-11-18 Raffi Sevlian , Yue Zhao , Andrea Goldsmith , Ram Rajagopal , H. Vincent Poor

We consider the problem of predicting power outages in an electrical power grid due to hazards produced by convective storms. These storms produce extreme weather phenomena such as intense wind, tornadoes and lightning over a small area. In…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-05-22 Roope Tervo , Joonas Karjalainen , Alexander Jung

We address the problem of mitigating damage to a power grid following a storm by managing a vehicle that has to be routed while simultaneously performing two tasks: learning about damage from the grid (which requires direct observation) and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-18 Lina Al-Kanj , Warren B. Powell , Belgacem Bouzaiene-Ayari

This paper develops a data-driven approach to accurately predict the restoration time of outages under different scales and factors. To achieve the goal, the proposed method consists of three stages. First, given the unprecedented amount of…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-12-22 Dingwei Wang , Yuxuan Yuan , Rui Cheng , Zhaoyu Wang

Weather and environmental factors are verified to have played significant roles in historical major cascading outages and blackouts. Therefore, in the simulation and risk assessment of cascading outages in power systems, it is necessary to…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2017-05-05 Rui Yao , Kai Sun

Extreme weather frequently cause widespread outages in distribution systems (DSs), demonstrating the importance of hardening strategies for resilience enhancement. However, the well-utilization of real-world outage data with associated…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-06 Wenlong Shi , Hongyi Li , Zhaoyu Wang

Prediction of power outages caused by convective storms which are highly localised in space and time is of crucial importance to power grid operators. We propose a new machine learning approach to predict the damage caused by storms. This…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-07-03 Roope Tervo , Joonas Karjalainen , Alexander Jung

Line outage identification in distribution grids is essential for sustainable grid operation. In this work, we propose a practical yet robust detection approach that utilizes only readily available voltage magnitudes, eliminating the need…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-21 Chenhan Xiao , Yizheng Liao , Yang Weng

In recent decades, the weather around the world has become more irregular and extreme, often causing large-scale extended power outages. Resilience -- the capability of withstanding, adapting to, and recovering from a large-scale disruption…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-06 Shixiang Zhu , Rui Yao , Yao Xie , Feng Qiu , Yueming Qiu , Xuan Wu

Transmission line outage rates are fundamental to power system reliability analysis. Line outages are infrequent, occurring only about once a year, so outage data are limited. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that leverages line…

Applications · Statistics 2020-01-24 Kai Zhou , James R. Cruise , Chris J. Dent , Ian Dobson , Louis Wehenkel , Zhaoyu Wang , Amy L. Wilson
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