Related papers: Data Reduction in Markov model using EM algorithm
Online (also called "recursive" or "adaptive") estimation of fixed model parameters in hidden Markov models is a topic of much interest in times series modelling. In this work, we propose an online parameter estimation algorithm that…
We provide a novel method for sensitivity analysis of parametric robust Markov chains. These models incorporate parameters and sets of probability distributions to alleviate the often unrealistic assumption that precise probabilities are…
The paper is devoted to studies of perturbed Markov chains commonly used for description of information networks. In such models, the matrix of transition probabilities for the corresponding Markov chain is usually regularised by adding a…
Markov state modeling has gained popularity in various scientific fields since it reduces complex time-series data sets into transitions between a few states. Yet common Markov state modeling frameworks assume a single Markov chain…
A divide-and-conquer approach to analyzing Markov chains (MCs) is not utilized as widely as it could be, despite its potential benefits. One primary reason for this is the fact that most MC decomposition approaches involve a complex and…
Filtering is concerned with the sequential estimation of the state, and uncertainties, of a Markovian system, given noisy observations. It is particularly difficult to achieve accurate filtering in complex dynamical systems, such as those…
Motivated by reduction of computational complexity, this work develops sign-error adaptive filtering algorithms for estimating time-varying system parameters. Different from the previous work on sign-error algorithms, the parameters are…
Experience of live video streaming can be improved if future available bandwidth can be predicted more accurately at the video uploader side. Thus follows a natural question which is how to make predictions both easily and precisely in an…
In networking applications, one often wishes to obtain estimates about the number of objects at different parts of the network (e.g., the number of cars at an intersection of a road network or the number of packets expected to reach a node…
We estimate a general mixture of Markov jump processes. The key novel feature of the proposed mixture is that the transition intensity matrices of the Markov processes comprising the mixture are entirely unconstrained. The Markov processes…
The EM algorithm is a generic tool that offers maximum likelihood solutions when datasets are incomplete with data values missing at random or completely at random. At least for its simplest form, the algorithm can be rewritten in terms of…
In this paper, selection of an active sensor subset for tracking a discrete time, finite state Markov chain having an unknown transition probability matrix (TPM) is considered. A total of N sensors are available for making observations of…
Markov chain analysis is a key technique in formal verification. A practical obstacle is that all probabilities in Markov models need to be known. However, system quantities such as failure rates or packet loss ratios, etc. are often not --…
We consider the parameter estimation of Markov chain when the unknown transition matrix belongs to an exponential family of transition matrices. Then, we show that the sample mean of the generator of the exponential family is an…
Bond rating Transition Probability Matrices (TPMs) are built over a one-year time-frame and for many practical purposes, like the assessment of risk in portfolios or the computation of banking Capital Requirements (e.g. the new IFRS 9…
We propose a new approach for estimating the finite dimensional transition matrix of a Markov chain using a large number of independent sample paths observed at random times. The sample paths may be observed as few as two times, and the…
Motivated by techniques developed in recent progress on lower bounds for sublinear time algorithms (Behnezhad, Roghani and Rubinstein, STOC 2023, FOCS 2023, and STOC 2024) we introduce and study a new class of randomized algorithmic…
We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…
The hidden Markov model (HMM) provides a powerful framework for inference in time-varying environments, where the underlying state evolves according to a Markov chain. To address the optimal filtering problem in general dynamic settings, we…
Jump Markov linear models consists of a finite number of linear state space models and a discrete variable encoding the jumps (or switches) between the different linear models. Identifying jump Markov linear models makes for a challenging…