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When primary objectives are insensitive or delayed, experimenters may instead focus on proxy metrics derived from secondary outcomes. For example, technology companies often infer the long-term impacts of product interventions from their…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-31 Aurélien Bibaut , Winston Chou , Simon Ejdemyr , Nathan Kallus

We propose a framework, the Neyman Jackknife, for conservative variance estimation in finite-population causal inference under interference. Our approach provides a general, flexible blueprint that enables conservative variance estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Bryan Park , Stefan Wager

The practice of employing empirical likelihood (EL) components in place of parametric likelihood functions in the construction of Bayesian-type procedures has been well-addressed in the modern statistical literature. We rigorously derive…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-21 Albert Vexler , Li Zou , Alan D. Hutson

We propose a simple and efficient approach to generate a prediction intervals (PI) for approximated and forecasted trends. Our method leverages a weighted asymmetric loss function to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the PI, with the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-20 Milo Grillo , Yunpeng Han , Agnieszka Werpachowska

In capture-recapture experiments, individual covariates may be subject to missing, especially when the number of times of being captured is small. When the covariate information is missing at random, the inverse probability weighting method…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-22 Yang Liu , Yukun Liu , Pengfei Li , Jing Qin , Lin Zhu

We deal with a general class of extreme-value regression models introduced by Barreto- Souza and Vasconcellos (2011). Our goal is to derive an adjusted likelihood ratio statistic that is approximately distributed as \c{hi}2 with a high…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-08-14 Silvia L. P. Ferrari , Eliane C. Pinheiro

The development of large databases of material properties, together with the availability of powerful computers, has allowed machine learning (ML) modeling to become a widely used tool for predicting material performances. While confidence…

Materials Science · Physics 2023-10-23 Francesca Tavazza , Kamal Choudhary , Brian DeCost

We consider the estimation of rare-event probabilities using sample proportions output by naive Monte Carlo or collected data. Unlike using variance reduction techniques, this naive estimator does not have a priori relative efficiency…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-19 Yuanlu Bai , Henry Lam

This paper explores a class of empirical Bayes methods for level-dependent threshold selection in wavelet shrinkage. The prior considered for each wavelet coefficient is a mixture of an atom of probability at zero and a heavy-tailed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Iain M. Johnstone , Bernard W. Silverman

We propose a novel approach to parameter estimation for simulator-based statistical models with intractable likelihood. Our proposed method involves recursive application of kernel ABC and kernel herding to the same observed data. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-13 Takafumi Kajihara , Motonobu Kanagawa , Keisuke Yamazaki , Kenji Fukumizu

The problem of nonlinear functional of parameters, such as differential entropy, has received much attention in information theory and statistics. In many situations, prior information about the parameters is available in the form of order…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Somnath Mandal , Lakshmi Kanta Patra

Given additional distributional information in the form of moment restrictions, kernel density and distribution function estimators with implied generalised empirical likelihood probabilities as weights achieve a reduction in variance due…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-08 Vitaliy Oryshchenko , Richard J. Smith

We establish the validity of bootstrap methods for empirical likelihood (EL) inference under the density ratio model (DRM). In particular, we prove that the bootstrap maximum EL estimators share the same limiting distribution as their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-24 Weiwei Zhuang , Weiqi Yang , Jiahua Chen

In this paper, we use the empirical likelihood method to construct the confidence regions for the difference between the parameters of a two-phases nonlinear model with random design. We show that the empirical likelihood ratio has an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-18 Zahraa Salloum

Longitudinal data are common in clinical trials and observational studies, where missing outcomes due to dropouts are always encountered. Under such context with the assumption of missing at random, the weighted generalized estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-30 Chixiang Chen , Biyi Shen , Lijun Zhang , Yuan Xue , Ming Wang

The empirical likelihood is a powerful nonparametric tool, that emulates its parametric counterpart -- the parametric likelihood -- preserving many of its large-sample properties. This article tackles the problem of assessing the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-29 Duc-Khanh To , Gianfranco Adimari , Monica Chiogna

This paper considers the empirical likelihood (EL) construction of confidence intervals for a linear functional based on right censored lifetime data. Many of the results in literature show that log EL has a limiting scaled chi-square…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-28 Shuyuan He , Wei Liang , Junshan Shen , Grace Yang

We develop an empirical Bayes (EB) G-modeling framework for short-panel linear models with nonparametric prior for the random intercepts, slopes, dynamics, and non-spherical error variances. We establish identification and consistency of…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-13 Myunghyun Song , Sokbae Lee , Serena Ng

A rich set of frequentist model averaging methods has been developed, but their applications have largely been limited to point prediction, as measuring prediction uncertainty in general settings remains an open problem. In this paper we…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-21 Zhongjun Qu , Wendun Wang , Xiaomeng Zhang

This paper provides a review of model selection and model averaging methods for multinomial probit models estimated using the MACML approach. The proposed approaches are partitioned into test based methods (mostly derived from the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-04 Manuel Batram , Dietmar Bauer